***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 13.8 14.4 14.8 1.9 76.3 73.2 11.1 12.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 12.7 13.1 14.2 1.7 73.8 71.5 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 15.0 15.2 14.6 1.7 76.2 72.5 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 10.0 10.7 12.2 1.9 79.0 75.0 7.6 8.4 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 11.9 12.3 12.6 1.9 78.2 75.4 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 10.8 11.5 10.4 2.1 86.2 78.8 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 13.0 13.3 14.2 1.6 72.9 70.1 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 5.7 5.9 9.6 1.5 75.1 72.2 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 12.6 12.9 12.4 1.6 76.9 73.1 11.0 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 12.5 12.6 10.6 1.5 74.7 72.0 11.0 11.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 12.6 12.9 11.7 1.6 76.6 73.9 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 10.9 11.6 10.8 1.8 79.7 75.2 8.5 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 12.0 12.5 10.7 1.7 81.3 75.5 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 13.0 12.9 11.7 1.1 66.7 67.1 11.7 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 13.6 14.0 13.4 1.7 78.9 75.1 11.7 12.4 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 12.9 13.6 11.5 1.8 81.7 76.2 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.5 13.9 1.6 71.9 70.5 11.4 12.5 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 11.2 11.4 9.9 1.4 73.8 71.1 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 13.2 13.5 14.2 1.6 74.2 71.7 11.2 12.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 7.6 8.0 8.1 1.6 75.8 72.8 5.7 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 12.5 12.8 13.8 1.7 76.6 73.2 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 12.8 12.6 13.7 1.4 69.3 68.8 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 12.9 13.4 13.9 1.5 72.1 71.3 10.9 11.7 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 12.7 13.0 11.8 1.3 71.3 69.9 11.1 11.4 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 13.2 13.5 13.8 1.9 78.5 73.4 10.9 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 11.6 12.3 10.4 2.0 84.9 77.5 9.7 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 13.0 13.4 14.3 1.9 77.7 73.5 10.9 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 11.7 12.2 12.5 1.8 79.2 74.8 10.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 9.5 10.0 8.9 1.3 70.9 68.9 7.6 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.6 14.5 1.7 73.8 71.6 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------