***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 11.5 11.1 11.2 -0.5 43.3 42.8 10.5 11.2 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 12.2 11.3 10.9 -0.5 40.5 42.7 10.0 11.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.9 12.2 11.0 -0.8 36.2 36.7 12.2 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 9.0 7.3 8.6 -0.6 37.9 39.9 7.1 8.6 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.1 9.1 9.4 -0.7 38.8 39.2 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.9 8.0 6.6 -1.0 32.0 33.0 8.1 9.1 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 11.8 11.0 11.0 -0.5 42.4 43.9 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.6 2.6 6.2 -1.0 31.7 33.4 2.9 4.2 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 11.2 10.4 9.6 -0.5 41.2 41.7 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.3 9.9 7.4 -0.8 35.7 36.7 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.9 9.8 8.8 -0.8 38.8 37.7 9.5 10.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 7.6 7.3 7.3 -1.1 29.1 30.8 7.5 8.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 9.2 9.0 7.7 -1.0 30.3 32.3 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.9 8.9 -0.9 33.8 35.1 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 11.2 11.0 10.8 -0.1 46.8 49.7 10.5 11.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.6 10.1 8.3 -0.9 35.6 35.6 10.0 11.2 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.0 11.1 10.6 -0.5 39.7 42.2 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.1 8.0 6.6 -1.1 31.1 32.2 8.1 8.9 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.1 10.8 -0.6 38.0 40.0 10.3 11.7 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.2 4.2 4.9 -1.0 33.2 33.5 4.2 5.2 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.1 10.1 10.6 -0.7 36.8 38.3 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.8 9.9 10.4 -1.0 32.0 33.7 9.9 10.6 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.4 10.6 -0.8 35.0 37.1 10.3 11.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.9 8.9 -1.0 32.9 34.1 9.9 10.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 11.1 10.3 10.6 -0.4 44.4 44.5 10.0 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 8.5 8.1 6.6 -1.3 25.6 28.1 8.5 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 11.8 11.3 11.0 -0.4 44.0 44.2 11.0 11.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 9.6 8.8 9.3 -0.6 37.8 39.8 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.0 7.1 5.8 -1.1 31.2 32.6 7.4 8.2 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 11.9 11.2 11.1 -0.6 40.3 41.7 10.5 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------