***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 64.3 104.0 59.2 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 69.3 74.6 63.4 108.3 63.8 55.0 47.0 64.1 76.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 78.4 78.6 64.3 107.0 60.5 54.9 52.1 69.4 82.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 80.6 90.8 77.9 112.1 65.4 57.7 55.9 73.7 91.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 69.7 68.2 73.6 107.5 62.4 55.6 50.6 64.8 70.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 68.8 65.0 95.6 107.3 57.7 56.2 45.1 60.4 72.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 58.2 67.0 64.6 107.2 64.6 54.5 43.8 52.5 67.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 102.3 103.6 78.7 107.1 62.0 55.7 86.3 92.3 109.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 65.6 69.1 71.5 106.6 63.9 55.5 53.8 61.5 69.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 76.4 83.7 79.7 104.3 61.8 54.0 47.3 69.6 92.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 59.8 56.6 67.3 107.3 58.7 55.6 45.1 54.8 64.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 65.1 68.0 67.1 111.1 62.9 57.5 45.9 61.1 72.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 67.5 66.2 80.6 109.6 58.7 56.8 38.3 63.7 68.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 93.1 86.3 76.2 104.9 59.2 53.8 65.6 83.7 94.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 37.8 56.4 67.3 106.8 60.2 54.0 41.8 49.8 63.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 62.4 67.8 74.6 109.7 60.5 57.3 38.5 58.5 73.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 62.1 65.5 61.1 104.8 58.7 52.8 42.9 56.6 71.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 80.3 87.5 89.4 105.5 63.7 56.0 62.1 75.9 89.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 72.2 74.6 62.5 108.6 62.9 55.2 51.0 63.2 91.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 75.0 83.7 99.6 109.0 67.2 57.5 63.1 70.3 83.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 62.2 62.1 64.2 105.6 61.1 55.4 42.8 58.3 62.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 53.7 66.6 59.8 102.5 54.1 50.7 49.5 63.2 69.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 57.3 64.4 64.4 110.2 61.4 56.6 42.3 53.3 65.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 80.5 81.6 77.4 105.5 60.7 55.2 64.2 77.1 82.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 68.3 73.1 78.8 106.9 64.6 55.4 51.3 62.7 73.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 61.5 62.9 72.9 110.3 58.2 57.7 43.5 59.2 66.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 71.0 75.8 75.2 105.4 61.6 54.5 51.7 64.9 83.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 58.3 60.4 72.1 108.5 60.7 55.9 41.7 54.1 64.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 93.7 109.8 90.0 105.5 64.5 55.8 72.5 84.8 112.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 67.0 71.1 64.6 108.8 63.5 55.8 40.2 59.5 74.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------