***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 11.9 104.2 68.3 53.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 24.8 24.8 10.3 85.6 57.4 48.9 15.9 22.9 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 24.9 23.9 11.8 98.5 61.9 52.6 10.8 19.2 25.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 20.3 24.4 13.4 92.2 59.5 51.9 8.4 15.4 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 20.9 23.1 13.9 93.7 60.0 52.9 9.3 18.3 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.2 21.2 109.0 61.3 55.9 9.9 13.7 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 19.8 22.3 11.2 93.1 61.2 50.6 9.3 17.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 28.8 31.9 17.8 104.6 64.5 55.2 18.9 25.4 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 21.2 24.0 14.0 95.3 62.7 53.1 11.5 18.6 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.5 16.8 97.0 62.1 53.3 8.7 11.3 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 17.3 20.7 13.8 99.4 62.5 54.5 7.1 14.0 23.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.9 16.3 14.7 105.8 66.6 55.8 6.6 8.9 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 15.7 19.3 17.2 108.4 65.1 56.4 6.5 12.3 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.4 31.4 14.3 90.9 62.4 50.7 13.4 25.6 32.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.1 11.3 91.4 60.5 51.4 4.6 10.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.6 12.1 15.1 103.6 63.6 55.6 5.6 9.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 9.8 19.8 9.8 81.1 58.5 46.1 8.1 16.6 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 21.1 21.9 19.4 100.0 63.2 53.5 11.4 17.6 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 21.5 22.6 10.1 84.7 58.3 48.9 6.8 18.8 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.5 21.5 23.0 111.3 63.2 55.7 9.8 16.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 19.4 20.2 12.2 97.9 59.5 53.1 8.0 15.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 10.8 23.8 9.0 74.3 55.7 44.4 15.3 22.0 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 20.0 22.9 10.6 88.4 61.5 50.1 9.6 17.5 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 25.0 27.1 15.6 96.1 63.4 52.2 14.7 23.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.9 15.0 105.5 62.7 53.0 12.6 20.5 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 18.7 19.5 15.3 109.0 69.6 57.4 5.2 9.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 24.5 32.3 14.4 108.2 65.9 53.5 9.6 19.9 32.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 12.4 14.7 12.8 92.5 59.3 52.6 5.5 9.9 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.8 25.1 20.0 103.4 63.5 53.8 12.8 17.3 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 20.2 22.7 10.9 92.1 60.8 51.1 12.6 17.0 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------