***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 18.0 100.2 59.3 50.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.7 18.6 18.8 109.7 64.6 52.0 4.3 9.1 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 8.0 22.2 19.5 110.0 65.6 52.7 6.5 13.6 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.5 21.8 22.3 108.2 65.4 51.1 10.8 17.1 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.6 14.2 22.1 108.7 65.7 51.7 6.8 11.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.8 27.3 99.9 57.2 49.6 10.2 14.8 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.4 18.2 105.5 62.1 50.8 3.0 7.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 14.9 29.7 23.2 102.9 63.2 51.5 17.3 24.6 33.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 7.5 17.1 21.0 104.5 62.9 51.0 8.0 14.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.8 23.8 23.4 100.4 61.5 50.2 10.2 15.2 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.5 17.7 20.1 106.2 65.3 51.5 6.6 11.1 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.0 17.0 20.0 109.3 65.7 52.4 9.3 13.6 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.6 16.1 23.0 104.5 63.2 50.5 6.2 12.3 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 23.9 25.6 22.2 99.2 60.4 50.5 13.3 18.0 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 16.3 18.5 99.7 61.7 49.6 4.0 10.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.9 17.9 21.8 107.9 64.4 51.7 6.6 11.5 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.0 15.0 16.6 100.4 59.7 48.7 4.1 9.6 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 12.5 18.9 25.8 97.9 57.7 49.3 15.9 17.9 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.4 22.4 18.7 109.0 66.1 52.2 3.0 6.3 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.7 14.9 28.2 97.4 57.8 50.5 9.7 12.9 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.1 18.8 105.4 63.1 51.5 5.5 13.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.0 16.1 95.0 58.4 47.9 5.4 11.2 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.1 20.2 18.9 106.9 66.6 52.3 3.6 9.5 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.7 23.4 22.5 101.0 59.5 49.7 13.1 20.7 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.7 19.3 22.1 101.9 61.9 50.8 6.0 13.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.5 14.6 19.9 104.3 60.2 52.2 5.9 10.4 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.7 11.0 20.4 98.5 58.9 50.2 4.8 9.3 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 8.8 16.6 20.8 104.9 65.0 50.7 8.2 14.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 13.4 28.3 25.5 95.0 56.6 48.5 14.7 23.1 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.4 14.4 19.3 110.8 65.0 52.7 6.1 9.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------