***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 20.2 118.4 68.9 58.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 18.0 21.4 20.0 128.5 77.8 62.0 5.0 9.8 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 15.7 17.4 20.3 128.7 73.5 61.5 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 25.1 31.0 25.2 139.5 78.9 64.2 9.9 14.7 27.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 25.9 31.2 23.8 138.7 77.3 63.7 11.7 14.7 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 18.6 19.2 30.1 127.3 69.8 62.3 6.0 12.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 14.7 15.5 19.7 119.9 74.5 60.3 3.4 10.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 31.2 36.8 24.2 139.6 73.8 63.9 13.0 20.5 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 17.8 20.6 22.7 135.8 76.2 63.2 5.4 11.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 23.3 23.8 25.3 136.6 74.0 63.1 11.5 14.8 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 18.0 20.2 21.3 137.7 75.2 64.0 5.1 12.5 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 23.2 22.5 20.5 144.4 74.5 64.8 8.1 15.3 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 16.2 15.7 25.1 133.3 70.6 62.2 5.4 9.4 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 19.5 23.4 25.4 150.4 78.1 64.0 9.5 14.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.7 22.7 22.5 131.0 77.9 60.3 5.9 8.9 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 22.3 21.2 23.2 133.7 73.7 63.8 5.8 10.8 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 12.0 14.4 19.3 126.6 76.1 60.3 4.3 6.6 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 21.4 21.6 29.1 144.3 74.4 64.4 7.8 11.9 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 19.9 25.6 20.1 135.9 78.0 62.6 4.8 9.2 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 21.3 23.4 31.8 144.2 75.5 64.7 8.4 14.7 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 17.5 19.4 19.9 129.4 72.4 61.5 7.2 9.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.2 13.6 20.0 135.5 78.8 60.0 5.6 9.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.7 18.8 21.2 147.3 76.6 63.9 6.1 8.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 21.6 25.3 25.4 143.4 74.1 63.4 7.4 12.7 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.9 23.2 24.7 121.9 72.4 61.4 6.6 9.6 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 18.8 21.5 22.4 135.3 71.7 63.0 7.1 10.7 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.0 22.1 23.4 117.5 69.7 59.8 5.0 14.6 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 18.6 22.0 23.3 134.5 77.8 62.5 9.4 13.6 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 33.7 40.1 29.4 147.3 77.9 65.3 14.3 21.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 16.5 17.8 20.3 126.3 75.6 61.7 5.9 10.6 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------