***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 14.2 92.3 60.3 51.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.3 14.3 103.8 63.5 54.2 4.0 7.7 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.3 12.7 87.0 57.9 48.3 4.5 8.9 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.2 18.8 17.0 104.6 65.6 56.9 4.5 12.2 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.1 11.8 13.8 85.8 59.4 50.3 3.2 6.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.5 17.0 90.8 54.2 48.7 7.3 9.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.3 12.2 15.5 106.4 65.3 54.8 2.8 6.0 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.6 19.0 13.5 81.5 54.5 46.4 11.9 16.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.1 10.3 13.8 88.6 57.2 52.4 4.2 9.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.1 13.9 14.2 82.2 53.8 47.8 9.1 12.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.9 12.1 83.6 56.3 49.2 2.6 6.5 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.1 12.0 85.1 59.0 48.9 2.9 7.3 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.3 15.4 91.1 56.1 50.6 3.0 5.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.5 10.7 14.3 81.0 50.3 45.6 3.7 10.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 9.3 15.1 100.3 62.8 52.3 1.5 4.1 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.7 12.2 14.4 91.3 56.9 50.5 8.0 9.8 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.9 11.2 15.5 106.7 66.7 55.8 4.0 7.2 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.0 13.5 15.1 80.4 50.7 46.6 7.6 13.2 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.9 13.7 99.6 62.3 53.1 4.1 9.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.6 9.8 16.6 84.6 50.6 46.6 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.8 13.2 13.3 87.9 61.3 51.5 2.0 8.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.0 14.1 14.6 101.1 64.3 54.4 4.1 11.5 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.2 14.7 13.7 95.4 60.5 51.4 3.6 11.4 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.5 13.7 13.8 81.1 52.1 47.1 9.1 13.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.8 17.0 97.0 64.6 53.6 2.4 5.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.9 7.2 15.4 93.3 57.8 50.6 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.1 14.5 16.9 97.7 63.4 53.3 5.2 10.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.4 15.2 98.4 60.3 52.9 4.6 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.1 15.0 15.1 79.0 49.6 45.6 10.3 15.5 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.9 14.7 14.1 100.7 64.3 53.2 5.8 11.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------