***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 23.8 0.1 52.1 52.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.0 23.5 0.0 53.5 50.1 23.8 24.6 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.4 23.7 -0.1 50.4 49.1 23.6 24.3 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.3 21.9 -0.2 49.9 47.6 16.0 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.3 21.9 -0.4 45.5 43.8 23.8 24.8 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 23.5 22.8 19.5 -0.6 40.7 41.2 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.5 24.2 23.4 0.0 53.1 50.6 23.3 24.1 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.1 19.9 -0.7 36.4 38.5 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 22.9 23.6 22.4 -0.4 45.3 43.8 23.4 23.8 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.4 23.4 20.8 -0.5 40.5 41.1 23.1 23.9 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.1 21.4 -0.5 42.7 42.4 23.7 24.4 24.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 22.6 22.5 20.8 -0.7 36.6 38.8 22.5 23.5 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 23.5 23.8 20.3 -0.7 36.7 38.6 23.5 24.5 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.5 23.9 21.9 -0.4 44.2 43.8 23.5 24.0 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 25.3 25.2 22.9 0.1 54.2 52.8 23.8 24.9 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.8 21.0 -0.6 41.9 41.4 24.1 25.0 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.4 23.1 -0.2 48.6 47.4 23.1 23.4 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 23.8 23.0 20.0 -0.6 38.7 39.7 22.8 23.3 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 24.3 24.4 23.6 0.0 53.4 50.1 23.3 23.9 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 17.9 17.9 17.6 -0.9 33.5 36.6 17.9 18.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 24.5 23.8 23.2 -0.2 45.9 46.1 23.3 24.0 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.3 23.0 -0.3 49.0 46.6 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 24.7 24.6 23.4 -0.1 51.2 49.2 23.7 24.4 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.3 21.8 -0.4 43.2 43.2 23.2 23.7 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.5 22.3 -0.1 52.1 50.0 23.3 24.4 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 22.9 23.1 19.9 -0.9 32.8 36.6 23.1 24.0 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 24.6 24.6 23.0 0.1 52.8 52.4 22.9 24.2 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.1 22.3 -0.2 48.8 47.5 23.8 25.2 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.0 17.9 19.0 -0.7 37.6 38.9 17.8 18.5 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.5 23.7 0.0 54.6 51.3 23.3 24.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------