***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.06.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 25.2 0.3 59.5 54.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.4 25.0 0.2 57.7 54.5 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.4 25.1 0.2 58.4 54.0 24.2 25.4 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.9 23.5 0.0 53.4 52.0 16.1 18.0 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.4 23.3 -0.1 52.1 51.1 24.9 26.0 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.8 23.9 20.9 -0.3 45.9 48.3 23.4 24.2 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.5 24.9 0.2 56.9 54.3 23.5 24.7 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.5 21.4 -0.3 46.9 48.2 12.8 13.6 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.5 23.6 -0.1 52.7 51.2 24.2 25.3 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.0 22.2 -0.2 49.1 49.7 24.1 25.0 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 26.1 25.7 22.8 -0.1 53.0 51.2 24.8 25.6 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.6 22.4 -0.3 47.0 48.3 23.7 24.6 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 26.4 25.5 21.7 -0.4 44.4 47.4 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.7 23.3 -0.1 51.4 51.1 23.8 25.4 26.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 27.1 27.1 24.2 0.2 56.0 53.6 24.3 26.8 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 26.7 26.3 22.4 -0.2 49.0 49.7 25.4 26.3 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.8 24.7 0.1 56.0 53.4 23.2 24.6 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.8 21.4 -0.3 45.6 48.8 23.4 25.0 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.5 26.0 25.1 0.2 57.7 54.8 23.2 25.0 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 18.7 19.7 19.1 -0.4 44.4 47.0 19.1 20.0 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 26.2 25.9 24.5 0.0 55.9 52.3 23.9 25.7 26.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.0 25.8 24.7 0.1 55.7 53.5 23.9 25.4 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 26.0 25.8 24.9 0.2 56.4 54.5 23.8 25.5 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 25.5 25.0 23.2 -0.1 50.8 50.9 23.7 25.0 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.9 26.1 23.6 0.1 55.3 52.7 24.0 25.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.2 21.5 -0.5 40.9 45.5 24.1 25.3 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.5 24.3 0.2 57.5 54.1 23.3 25.1 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.0 26.8 23.7 0.0 53.1 51.9 25.1 26.7 27.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.2 19.6 20.4 -0.3 45.8 48.4 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 26.0 26.0 25.2 0.2 58.9 54.8 23.6 25.4 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------