***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 24.4 0.6 64.4 58.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.3 24.2 0.4 58.9 56.7 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.9 25.3 24.3 0.4 59.9 56.1 23.9 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 15.8 17.6 22.6 0.3 56.3 54.3 16.6 17.6 17.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 23.3 25.5 22.5 0.1 53.5 52.4 24.4 25.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.3 20.1 -0.1 49.9 50.5 22.6 23.3 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 26.1 25.2 24.1 0.4 61.2 57.2 23.3 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.1 12.4 20.5 -0.2 47.5 49.1 11.8 12.5 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.6 22.9 0.1 54.7 52.5 23.1 24.3 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 22.6 24.6 21.4 -0.1 50.9 50.6 23.2 24.5 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 23.2 24.7 21.9 0.0 51.4 51.3 23.9 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 22.0 23.4 21.5 -0.2 47.7 49.1 22.9 23.6 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 23.5 25.3 20.9 -0.2 49.3 49.1 23.6 25.3 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.2 24.9 22.5 0.0 53.5 52.8 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.8 23.3 0.5 61.3 56.7 24.9 25.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 24.0 25.8 21.6 -0.1 49.3 50.3 24.4 25.8 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 22.2 24.3 23.8 0.3 58.4 55.7 23.1 24.0 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 22.0 23.5 20.6 -0.2 49.7 50.3 22.7 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.8 24.2 0.4 58.1 56.6 22.5 24.2 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 17.3 18.4 18.2 -0.3 44.0 48.5 18.1 18.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 22.8 25.1 23.8 0.3 58.0 54.5 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.5 23.8 0.3 58.1 55.7 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.1 24.0 0.3 56.8 55.9 23.4 24.9 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 22.0 24.4 22.4 0.0 53.8 52.4 22.8 24.2 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 23.3 25.5 22.9 0.5 63.5 56.8 23.6 25.0 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.2 20.7 -0.3 47.0 48.4 23.0 24.5 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 26.0 25.2 23.6 0.6 64.3 58.1 23.6 24.4 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 24.1 25.9 22.8 0.2 54.5 53.7 24.6 25.5 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 17.1 18.3 19.5 -0.2 49.1 50.2 17.5 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.1 24.4 0.4 60.1 57.3 23.6 24.7 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------