***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 23.0 -0.4 41.8 44.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 22.4 23.9 22.7 -0.5 42.4 42.5 23.3 24.4 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.6 23.7 22.9 -0.6 41.4 42.9 22.8 24.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.2 15.2 21.2 -0.8 38.6 41.9 15.1 16.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 22.4 22.7 21.1 -0.9 39.0 40.8 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.1 21.4 18.8 -1.2 40.4 39.4 21.0 22.8 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 22.2 23.4 22.7 -0.5 41.6 42.9 22.8 23.7 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 10.6 11.3 19.2 -1.3 35.8 37.5 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 21.8 22.2 21.5 -0.9 39.3 41.2 21.4 24.3 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 21.8 22.1 20.0 -1.1 37.7 39.3 21.8 24.1 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 22.1 22.4 20.6 -1.0 39.5 40.3 22.2 24.2 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 20.9 21.4 20.1 -1.2 36.4 38.0 21.3 22.7 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 22.1 23.2 19.5 -1.3 37.9 37.5 22.5 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 21.8 22.8 21.0 -1.0 36.4 39.2 22.4 24.5 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.1 21.9 -0.5 44.5 44.6 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 22.7 23.3 20.2 -1.1 38.5 39.2 23.0 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 21.7 23.1 22.2 -0.7 40.2 41.0 22.9 23.6 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 21.0 21.7 19.2 -1.2 36.0 38.1 21.5 23.1 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.5 22.8 -0.5 42.6 42.7 22.8 23.8 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 16.2 16.9 16.8 -1.5 33.1 35.5 16.9 18.2 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 24.6 22.7 22.3 -0.7 39.6 42.4 22.3 24.2 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.3 22.1 -0.8 38.4 40.0 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 22.1 23.8 22.6 -0.6 42.4 42.5 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 21.4 21.9 21.0 -1.0 37.0 39.9 21.6 23.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.6 23.3 21.5 -0.6 42.7 43.8 22.8 24.1 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 21.4 21.9 19.2 -1.5 35.7 35.7 21.8 23.0 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.4 22.1 -0.4 42.5 44.3 22.8 23.8 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 24.4 23.3 21.5 -0.8 39.2 41.8 22.3 23.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 15.9 17.0 18.1 -1.3 35.1 37.2 16.9 18.1 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 22.2 23.4 22.9 -0.5 41.9 43.2 23.1 24.0 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------