***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 22.6 0.0 53.6 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 25.1 24.7 22.2 -0.1 50.3 49.2 22.6 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 24.7 24.2 22.4 -0.3 47.5 47.4 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 17.2 17.0 20.3 -0.2 51.1 48.8 15.4 16.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 24.8 24.1 20.6 -0.6 44.2 44.1 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 23.5 22.3 18.3 -0.7 43.0 42.4 21.6 23.3 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 24.3 24.0 22.1 -0.1 50.0 49.3 22.7 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 13.1 12.6 18.4 -1.0 42.9 41.0 11.3 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 24.6 23.4 21.5 -0.6 43.8 44.3 22.1 24.3 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 24.2 23.1 19.6 -0.8 45.2 43.2 22.2 23.9 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 24.5 23.8 20.2 -0.8 44.0 42.3 22.4 24.3 24.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 23.6 22.8 19.1 -1.1 41.9 39.9 21.7 23.4 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 24.5 23.9 19.2 -1.1 42.0 39.8 23.4 24.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 25.0 23.0 20.8 -0.7 39.6 41.9 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 25.3 25.4 22.4 0.2 58.9 55.3 22.3 25.1 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 25.2 24.7 19.9 -0.8 43.8 42.3 23.5 24.9 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 23.8 23.0 21.5 -0.4 44.3 45.3 21.8 23.4 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 23.7 22.8 18.7 -0.9 42.4 42.4 22.0 23.3 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 24.2 23.4 22.2 -0.2 47.8 48.0 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.8 18.0 16.3 -1.2 39.3 40.2 17.2 18.5 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 24.6 23.5 22.2 -0.5 45.1 44.8 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 25.1 23.6 21.4 -0.6 41.3 42.2 21.9 24.7 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 24.8 24.1 22.1 -0.4 45.5 45.9 22.1 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 24.1 22.9 20.7 -0.7 41.7 43.0 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 24.5 24.1 21.2 -0.3 50.8 48.6 22.5 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.7 22.6 18.1 -1.3 35.1 36.8 22.6 23.4 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 24.5 24.3 21.9 -0.1 52.6 50.8 22.7 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 24.8 24.6 21.1 -0.2 52.3 49.5 22.0 24.5 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.9 17.4 17.8 -1.0 41.0 41.1 16.7 18.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 24.8 24.4 22.4 -0.1 52.8 50.3 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------