***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-09.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 14.3 0.4 62.8 59.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.8 14.0 0.2 60.4 55.4 11.9 12.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.5 14.0 0.3 60.8 57.7 13.5 14.0 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.4 12.1 0.2 55.7 54.3 8.4 9.2 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.1 12.0 0.2 53.9 53.2 10.5 11.1 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.7 10.0 0.1 51.9 52.3 9.4 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.6 14.0 0.2 58.1 56.2 12.2 12.5 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.8 4.6 9.8 -0.1 50.1 49.5 4.0 4.6 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 11.9 11.9 12.4 0.2 55.1 55.1 11.4 11.7 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.7 10.6 0.1 51.2 51.4 11.3 11.7 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 11.6 11.5 11.4 0.1 52.9 52.8 11.1 11.4 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 9.9 9.8 10.6 0.0 50.0 49.0 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.3 11.1 10.3 -0.1 48.5 47.8 10.4 11.2 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.2 12.0 -0.1 47.1 47.7 12.1 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 12.6 13.1 13.1 0.4 65.1 61.2 12.2 12.5 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.0 11.1 0.1 51.2 51.0 11.6 12.0 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.7 13.6 0.1 55.1 52.6 12.3 12.7 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.2 9.8 -0.1 47.9 48.5 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.7 13.9 0.2 60.9 55.4 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.2 7.8 -0.2 46.4 46.5 5.7 6.2 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 12.0 12.2 13.4 0.2 56.2 56.4 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.1 13.4 0.0 53.1 50.1 11.4 12.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.5 13.6 0.2 59.0 54.7 11.4 12.1 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.9 11.9 0.0 52.1 51.0 11.6 11.9 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.6 12.8 0.2 55.3 56.1 11.7 12.1 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.9 10.5 10.1 -0.3 44.1 42.8 10.3 10.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.7 13.6 0.4 59.0 58.7 11.9 12.6 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 10.8 11.0 12.5 0.2 58.4 55.6 10.4 10.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 9.1 8.8 9.0 -0.1 48.1 47.8 8.1 8.9 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.9 14.2 0.3 61.4 57.2 12.2 12.8 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------