***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.05.2013.-02.06.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 14.7 0.4 61.7 58.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.5 14.6 0.3 61.7 57.2 11.5 13.0 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.9 14.5 0.3 62.7 57.4 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.6 12.6 0.2 57.1 54.2 8.0 9.4 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.4 12.5 0.2 57.0 54.5 10.5 11.1 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.1 10.6 0.3 57.4 56.0 9.6 10.0 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.7 14.6 0.3 61.4 57.8 11.6 13.2 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.0 10.4 0.1 53.8 52.3 3.7 4.7 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.3 12.8 0.2 57.9 55.3 11.5 12.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.2 11.2 0.1 53.8 53.5 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.8 12.0 0.2 56.7 54.7 10.8 11.8 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.8 11.2 0.0 53.7 51.8 9.3 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.3 10.8 0.0 51.6 51.2 10.5 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.8 12.5 0.0 53.0 51.9 12.1 12.7 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.2 13.4 0.3 58.1 56.9 12.1 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.2 11.6 0.2 56.0 53.7 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 13.4 13.6 14.3 0.3 59.8 56.1 11.9 13.2 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.5 10.3 10.4 0.0 51.4 51.6 9.9 10.3 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.3 14.5 0.3 62.0 56.8 11.5 12.9 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.8 8.5 -0.1 52.1 50.6 5.8 6.7 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.6 13.9 0.3 58.8 56.4 11.4 12.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.5 14.1 0.1 57.2 53.5 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.7 14.1 0.2 60.7 55.5 11.8 12.4 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.0 12.4 0.1 55.4 53.2 11.4 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.7 13.1 0.2 56.5 55.2 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.8 10.6 -0.3 47.1 45.6 9.9 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.2 13.9 0.4 60.2 57.5 11.5 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.4 12.9 0.2 57.0 55.4 10.7 11.0 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.0 9.6 0.0 52.4 51.9 7.8 8.7 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.6 14.7 0.4 62.2 57.9 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------