***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 13.7 0.0 46.0 49.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 10.9 11.5 13.4 -0.2 42.5 45.1 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.2 13.4 -0.1 43.0 47.6 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.0 8.3 11.7 -0.1 44.8 47.3 7.6 8.4 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.3 10.7 11.4 -0.3 40.4 44.7 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.0 8.9 9.5 -0.2 42.2 44.9 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 10.9 11.7 13.4 -0.2 42.0 45.5 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.4 3.7 9.2 -0.5 38.3 39.8 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.3 11.7 -0.3 40.0 43.7 11.0 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.3 10.0 -0.4 38.1 41.0 11.0 11.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.5 10.8 -0.3 42.8 44.0 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.4 9.1 10.0 -0.5 40.8 40.4 8.5 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.5 9.6 -0.5 40.0 40.7 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.7 11.4 -0.5 37.4 40.4 11.7 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.4 12.5 0.1 50.7 51.0 11.7 12.4 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.5 10.5 -0.3 43.2 44.0 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 11.0 11.9 13.0 -0.4 38.8 43.1 11.4 12.5 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 9.2 9.6 9.2 -0.5 35.9 39.2 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.6 13.3 -0.2 41.6 45.6 11.2 12.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 5.7 7.3 -0.6 32.8 37.7 5.7 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.1 12.8 -0.2 41.8 46.2 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 10.2 10.9 12.8 -0.4 36.3 42.1 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 10.6 11.3 13.0 -0.2 40.2 45.7 10.9 11.7 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 10.6 11.1 11.3 -0.4 39.6 42.2 11.1 11.4 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.5 12.2 -0.1 44.4 47.9 10.9 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.8 9.9 9.6 -0.7 38.5 38.8 9.7 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.7 13.0 0.0 45.5 48.3 10.9 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.5 12.0 -0.1 46.8 48.1 10.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.3 7.6 8.4 -0.6 34.5 38.1 7.6 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 11.2 11.7 13.6 -0.1 43.3 46.6 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------