***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.05.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 0.0 13.3 0.8 69.3 65.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 12.1 12.1 12.7 0.4 57.5 58.5 10.0 11.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 13.8 14.6 12.9 0.5 65.6 62.2 12.2 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 8.9 9.8 10.9 0.6 64.9 63.2 7.1 8.6 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 10.0 10.6 11.0 0.4 61.4 59.8 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 9.3 9.7 8.7 0.3 61.1 60.0 8.1 9.1 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 11.7 12.5 12.8 0.5 58.5 60.2 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 4.3 4.5 8.5 0.1 60.1 57.4 2.9 4.2 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 11.2 11.6 11.5 0.6 66.1 64.1 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 11.2 11.5 9.5 0.3 60.5 58.7 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 10.7 10.9 10.3 0.3 61.3 58.8 9.5 10.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 9.1 9.2 9.2 0.2 60.6 58.1 7.5 8.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 10.3 10.7 9.2 0.1 60.0 56.0 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 11.8 11.3 10.7 -0.2 47.1 49.0 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 12.2 12.4 12.7 1.1 74.8 73.2 10.5 11.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 11.4 11.7 10.0 0.3 61.1 58.0 10.0 11.2 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 11.8 12.0 12.2 0.2 57.9 56.6 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 9.1 9.5 8.4 0.0 56.1 54.2 8.1 8.9 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 11.9 12.3 12.6 0.4 57.4 58.0 10.3 11.7 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 5.4 5.6 6.2 -0.1 54.4 52.3 4.2 5.2 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 11.0 11.5 12.6 0.5 65.1 62.2 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 10.8 11.0 12.0 0.0 51.6 52.3 9.9 10.6 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 11.2 11.4 12.3 0.3 56.6 57.1 10.3 11.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 10.8 11.2 10.6 0.1 56.4 55.2 9.9 10.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 11.1 12.2 12.2 0.6 65.2 62.0 10.0 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 10.3 10.3 8.6 -0.1 55.8 51.7 8.5 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 12.7 13.0 12.8 0.8 69.1 65.0 11.0 11.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 10.1 10.1 11.5 0.7 67.5 65.6 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 8.4 8.4 7.5 -0.1 54.4 52.3 7.4 8.2 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 11.9 12.6 13.0 0.5 61.6 60.9 10.5 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------