***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 86.7 110.4 82.6 148.9 81.2 73.0 42.4 64.9 73.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 81.0 89.0 81.0 146.0 81.5 71.9 47.4 63.4 74.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 102.9 126.0 84.1 152.8 86.8 75.4 53.9 71.3 81.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 90.7 126.7 106.1 163.4 86.9 77.1 58.7 66.3 91.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 76.3 106.1 98.8 154.0 85.5 74.8 52.7 64.3 73.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 87.8 102.4 127.4 160.1 88.6 76.5 45.9 59.8 72.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 69.5 73.9 80.0 141.6 77.1 70.2 39.6 58.4 66.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 122.3 156.5 106.6 150.2 84.8 74.3 81.9 93.3 108.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 74.5 85.8 95.5 147.3 84.0 72.2 52.2 61.6 71.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 92.1 112.7 111.4 148.8 85.1 73.1 50.6 67.9 86.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 67.7 95.4 90.7 160.2 86.2 76.7 42.7 55.3 63.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 73.8 85.6 90.0 163.2 87.5 77.6 45.9 61.1 71.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 77.1 92.8 108.0 168.5 89.8 79.4 40.0 59.3 66.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 120.0 162.1 113.2 161.6 90.9 77.3 68.2 83.8 90.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 64.9 100.8 104.0 175.6 89.1 78.2 36.2 47.0 56.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 73.9 87.5 100.1 167.7 87.2 78.9 38.8 58.6 73.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 72.5 95.1 81.9 147.8 83.3 70.3 45.7 59.5 70.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 92.2 106.2 128.1 150.9 86.8 73.8 62.8 79.8 91.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 92.2 109.1 82.6 152.6 83.7 74.2 50.4 63.3 82.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 86.8 99.4 130.6 146.3 85.5 73.7 59.9 69.5 85.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 68.8 97.3 86.9 151.9 86.9 73.9 42.4 55.4 63.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 72.0 103.1 84.4 152.8 85.1 71.5 49.9 59.4 67.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 70.5 93.6 88.4 162.5 86.9 77.0 43.0 52.7 67.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 91.9 110.5 110.0 154.9 88.0 75.6 69.8 77.8 83.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 77.1 100.5 105.8 148.5 81.4 72.5 48.2 58.1 72.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 72.5 86.3 96.0 175.5 92.1 82.6 43.5 57.9 67.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 86.7 101.2 97.4 145.6 80.0 72.3 41.4 60.5 86.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 65.8 78.4 103.4 171.3 87.6 78.1 43.6 51.2 58.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 115.1 141.5 127.7 151.0 86.1 74.3 72.4 83.9 112.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 81.8 98.3 80.3 145.2 81.8 72.6 41.1 54.5 74.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------