***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 21.4 32.7 11.5 120.7 73.8 55.9 8.5 17.3 27.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.7 27.2 11.1 111.1 68.4 51.1 13.6 21.0 26.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 27.4 36.2 11.2 119.1 70.5 55.4 10.2 19.9 26.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 31.6 39.6 15.9 144.6 78.9 60.6 9.0 19.6 27.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 21.0 29.2 15.8 143.4 77.4 59.1 11.8 18.3 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.9 20.6 23.9 141.3 75.8 58.2 11.5 14.3 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 11.0 25.9 11.5 111.4 70.5 51.2 8.9 18.3 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 29.2 37.2 18.2 130.9 73.7 56.2 21.5 25.5 33.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 23.7 28.0 15.7 136.0 76.2 57.5 10.8 21.3 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 17.7 29.5 18.9 132.8 75.0 57.3 8.9 13.1 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.7 26.7 14.0 144.5 76.3 58.3 9.6 14.2 20.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.8 26.2 14.1 139.8 73.3 56.9 6.3 9.6 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 8.0 20.5 17.9 142.7 73.8 57.9 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 35.3 36.3 14.6 109.4 65.6 53.5 15.4 31.7 36.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.2 19.4 13.9 140.1 76.1 59.6 5.5 11.1 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 21.0 26.4 15.1 139.8 76.4 58.7 6.4 10.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 10.1 30.3 11.0 104.0 68.4 49.9 10.4 18.1 27.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.9 31.1 21.0 123.6 72.4 57.1 13.9 20.0 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.0 29.5 10.6 111.1 67.8 51.6 10.5 19.8 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.1 28.8 22.3 116.9 68.3 54.3 9.3 16.3 25.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 18.8 30.5 12.6 129.1 76.1 56.5 9.4 14.9 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 11.5 31.5 10.3 104.2 65.7 50.1 16.6 22.0 31.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 8.0 25.5 10.5 111.3 67.0 53.1 13.1 16.8 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 29.1 32.3 15.8 119.4 70.2 56.6 14.3 25.6 31.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 22.5 30.2 16.6 132.3 77.1 59.2 12.6 20.3 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 20.0 23.9 15.7 155.1 75.4 60.9 4.7 10.2 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 22.1 32.0 15.2 124.2 72.8 56.9 8.6 18.1 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 17.2 21.6 15.0 146.2 78.4 61.5 5.8 10.1 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 26.0 33.4 20.7 120.1 69.7 55.6 12.8 21.4 31.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.8 26.9 11.2 114.5 68.4 52.8 11.9 17.9 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------