***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.05.2014.-01.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.1 13.8 14.9 96.6 67.1 48.8 5.8 8.6 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 12.8 11.4 16.1 99.8 61.7 51.1 3.0 7.8 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.6 19.2 16.0 103.9 66.9 50.7 5.4 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.8 23.3 20.6 115.8 68.5 55.5 9.9 15.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.9 13.9 18.8 106.5 69.4 54.1 6.7 10.1 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 9.3 23.6 28.3 134.7 75.2 59.5 10.8 14.4 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.5 15.9 97.8 60.8 50.9 3.0 4.6 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 15.7 39.2 22.7 122.7 71.7 57.8 14.9 24.1 36.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.2 17.9 18.7 102.7 67.5 52.5 8.6 12.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.1 19.5 23.6 115.8 69.5 55.3 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.2 17.5 17.0 110.6 71.3 54.3 8.0 11.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.1 20.6 17.7 127.0 74.8 57.8 9.0 12.9 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.3 20.7 21.9 135.2 75.7 59.2 6.2 12.4 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.1 31.0 23.4 122.3 70.3 55.1 11.3 15.6 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 7.4 23.7 20.9 133.4 75.7 55.5 6.2 11.9 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.0 21.9 19.8 127.1 73.8 57.3 5.4 8.6 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.8 16.4 100.3 61.8 50.8 3.9 8.3 10.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 19.6 21.0 29.7 129.2 70.6 57.7 13.2 17.0 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.4 16.2 104.4 62.9 51.0 2.1 7.6 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.9 20.0 30.4 126.1 66.7 58.5 9.4 13.3 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.6 15.2 16.4 102.5 69.6 51.8 5.7 10.4 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.1 16.4 103.7 62.2 52.0 5.8 10.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.8 15.0 17.2 113.2 66.0 51.7 3.9 7.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 11.3 24.1 24.1 123.1 71.6 54.7 11.4 19.5 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.2 18.4 20.5 106.0 67.7 53.1 5.8 11.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.1 21.0 18.4 139.7 75.4 59.8 6.8 9.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.8 13.2 18.7 102.2 67.3 51.5 4.8 7.6 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.9 18.8 20.7 127.4 73.4 56.2 9.6 14.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 26.5 29.3 29.2 126.4 69.7 58.1 15.5 24.0 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.7 15.5 97.4 62.8 50.6 5.6 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------