***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.3 13.0 91.5 56.0 47.0 12.7 17.1 18.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.2 10.8 11.4 82.8 50.9 44.3 5.8 10.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.0 10.3 11.9 84.4 48.3 44.6 7.9 10.5 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.0 19.8 16.9 94.3 58.7 51.3 9.1 14.7 24.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 21.1 18.7 15.4 88.8 53.5 49.4 12.1 17.9 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.7 19.1 24.7 108.9 67.3 50.4 5.2 12.5 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.0 11.6 11.2 79.4 52.8 43.1 5.4 9.9 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 27.3 24.7 17.3 87.0 52.9 45.6 14.3 23.9 33.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 7.4 14.5 14.5 85.2 52.2 47.0 5.5 13.2 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 20.1 15.3 17.1 83.3 49.3 44.2 10.5 15.4 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.9 15.6 13.5 88.6 55.3 47.7 5.3 10.0 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.1 14.1 91.9 58.5 49.3 4.9 13.0 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.2 18.6 101.4 64.0 51.7 4.0 9.2 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 10.7 15.7 15.3 79.1 49.4 39.6 11.3 15.9 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.7 17.7 16.4 98.5 62.0 49.4 5.3 11.5 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.5 13.6 16.5 99.2 60.5 50.8 5.3 7.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.3 9.1 11.1 84.6 54.4 45.1 6.0 8.9 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 14.0 20.1 84.1 48.8 43.2 8.1 14.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.0 10.5 11.6 85.7 52.1 45.0 6.7 10.0 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 10.0 19.8 24.1 94.9 57.4 46.3 9.8 17.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.9 18.0 13.2 90.2 56.7 48.4 9.9 13.6 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 7.2 10.6 11.6 86.5 54.2 46.3 7.1 10.4 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.4 12.4 88.6 54.9 45.6 7.3 8.9 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.0 12.0 15.5 79.4 47.0 41.7 7.8 13.9 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.2 11.6 17.0 87.0 51.4 47.2 7.9 10.8 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.2 14.5 15.2 102.4 61.6 52.0 6.5 9.8 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.0 15.8 88.7 54.0 46.7 8.3 17.7 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.3 20.4 16.8 98.9 62.0 50.8 10.3 14.6 20.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 13.3 23.8 20.7 85.9 49.9 43.1 15.9 23.8 32.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.7 11.9 11.7 83.6 51.0 44.4 8.9 11.8 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------