***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 22.4 44.7 43.2 263.6 93.7 85.7 4.4 11.2 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 15.4 37.1 42.3 272.9 94.9 83.2 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 23.4 49.1 45.0 278.8 97.4 87.3 4.5 9.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 25.8 45.7 52.6 290.5 94.7 89.3 5.8 10.9 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 19.5 38.9 48.8 269.0 93.4 87.8 4.0 7.9 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 15.7 26.7 50.5 265.2 94.6 88.9 6.3 9.6 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 16.5 39.1 41.4 262.0 92.7 82.6 2.9 4.8 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 28.3 71.3 48.3 257.5 95.6 88.3 11.2 19.6 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 22.4 46.4 46.7 257.0 94.0 86.7 5.1 9.4 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 22.6 69.1 51.9 259.9 96.0 88.4 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 16.3 39.8 46.2 281.8 95.9 88.4 3.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 17.5 32.6 44.0 278.7 96.5 88.6 5.3 7.2 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 14.7 39.1 49.7 289.9 96.9 90.9 3.6 6.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 21.5 62.8 59.9 329.1 99.0 90.5 5.4 15.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 10.9 19.3 52.7 312.9 96.6 89.2 1.5 4.8 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 14.2 44.2 48.7 290.8 96.5 89.9 6.8 9.0 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 14.8 37.1 43.4 282.9 94.2 81.8 2.7 5.0 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 24.6 62.6 57.3 271.0 97.7 90.7 9.2 13.1 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 16.1 32.5 44.2 284.1 95.6 84.4 3.9 9.4 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 24.8 68.1 53.7 260.7 96.9 90.9 5.9 8.6 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 18.2 30.2 44.7 264.2 94.7 86.7 1.1 9.3 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 17.8 34.2 46.1 284.3 93.7 82.0 4.1 9.6 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 17.7 35.7 48.2 307.0 96.9 86.9 3.9 9.5 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 21.0 51.9 54.6 288.4 98.4 90.0 7.0 12.4 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 20.0 46.3 51.7 260.2 94.7 87.2 3.2 6.0 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 19.3 43.9 46.6 282.1 97.1 91.5 4.0 6.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 15.4 48.2 47.7 254.2 93.9 85.8 3.6 9.8 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 15.9 25.8 50.9 302.7 95.9 89.3 3.4 6.6 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 23.6 60.0 57.1 283.1 97.6 92.1 10.4 17.9 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 16.4 25.0 42.0 267.1 94.9 84.2 4.6 8.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------