***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 23.1 22.6 23.1 -1.3 22.7 32.4 23.2 24.2 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 23.2 22.8 23.0 -1.3 22.3 32.8 23.8 24.5 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 23.2 23.1 23.0 -1.5 19.8 29.3 23.4 24.4 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 15.8 15.3 21.2 -1.6 19.8 26.8 16.1 17.2 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 23.5 23.1 21.3 -1.6 18.8 26.9 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 21.7 21.6 19.4 -1.4 20.0 27.9 22.1 23.0 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 22.9 22.9 23.1 -1.2 28.1 34.8 23.2 24.0 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 11.3 10.9 19.5 -1.7 17.6 26.1 11.8 12.4 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 22.7 22.3 21.7 -1.6 17.5 27.0 23.3 23.9 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 22.6 22.2 20.3 -1.7 17.9 26.4 23.1 23.8 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 23.0 22.5 20.8 -1.6 18.5 26.8 23.6 24.3 24.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 22.2 21.7 20.4 -1.7 17.1 26.0 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 23.1 22.7 20.1 -1.6 17.9 26.4 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 22.9 22.4 21.2 -1.8 17.7 26.1 23.4 24.1 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 23.6 23.3 21.9 -1.6 19.3 25.6 23.6 24.8 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 23.6 23.2 20.6 -1.6 18.4 26.7 24.0 24.8 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 22.4 22.5 22.8 -1.3 23.3 33.9 22.9 23.7 25.0 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 22.1 21.9 19.5 -1.7 17.4 25.9 22.8 23.1 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 22.9 22.4 22.9 -1.5 20.5 31.0 23.2 24.1 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 17.4 16.9 17.4 -1.7 16.5 26.2 17.9 18.6 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 23.2 22.9 22.5 -1.6 18.5 27.6 23.3 24.0 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 23.1 22.4 22.6 -1.5 19.6 30.7 23.6 24.4 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 23.1 22.6 22.6 -1.6 18.7 28.8 23.4 24.4 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 22.5 22.2 21.2 -1.7 18.0 26.1 23.0 23.6 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 23.3 23.0 21.7 -1.4 23.2 30.4 23.3 24.4 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 22.6 22.1 19.8 -1.6 18.0 26.8 23.0 23.9 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 23.2 22.7 22.4 -1.3 24.5 33.0 22.9 24.1 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 23.6 23.0 21.5 -1.6 17.5 25.3 23.6 25.1 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 17.2 16.9 18.6 -1.7 17.4 26.2 17.7 18.5 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 23.2 22.8 23.2 -1.3 23.7 32.6 23.2 24.4 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------