***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.4 26.1 -0.1 49.1 49.9 23.4 24.4 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.7 24.8 26.2 0.0 49.2 51.1 23.4 24.9 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 25.9 25.0 26.0 -0.2 46.8 48.4 24.3 25.1 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.5 24.1 -0.7 43.5 43.8 16.2 17.6 18.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 24.1 25.2 24.2 -0.5 45.5 46.1 24.9 25.7 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.3 23.7 21.9 -0.7 45.2 44.5 23.0 23.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 25.2 24.7 26.2 0.1 51.3 52.2 23.0 24.6 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.5 13.3 22.5 -0.5 46.4 46.1 12.2 13.4 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 23.4 24.8 24.6 -0.4 44.9 47.1 23.9 24.8 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 23.3 24.5 23.3 -0.4 46.3 47.2 23.6 24.9 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 23.9 24.9 23.6 -0.5 46.9 45.9 24.2 25.2 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 22.9 24.1 23.3 -0.7 45.2 44.4 23.4 24.1 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 26.0 25.1 22.6 -0.8 43.2 43.2 24.4 25.5 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 23.2 25.0 24.3 -0.3 45.7 48.5 23.7 25.0 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 26.4 25.2 24.3 -0.9 42.6 41.3 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.6 25.9 23.2 -0.7 45.2 44.0 24.8 26.1 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.0 26.0 0.1 49.2 51.9 23.0 24.0 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 22.9 24.7 22.6 -0.3 49.3 48.1 22.8 24.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.2 26.1 -0.1 48.5 50.0 22.8 24.6 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 18.4 19.4 20.5 -0.4 48.0 47.6 18.8 19.5 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 23.3 24.7 25.4 -0.4 44.2 47.2 24.1 24.9 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.6 24.7 25.8 -0.1 48.4 50.3 23.6 24.8 26.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 23.7 24.7 25.8 -0.2 46.9 49.0 23.4 25.1 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 23.0 24.6 24.2 -0.3 47.7 48.2 23.4 24.7 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 23.5 24.6 24.4 -0.3 47.5 47.7 24.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 23.9 24.3 22.5 -0.9 42.5 42.5 23.9 24.7 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.2 25.3 -0.1 49.8 50.0 23.5 24.2 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 26.6 25.7 24.1 -0.9 43.4 41.8 24.9 26.1 27.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 18.5 19.5 21.6 -0.3 48.5 48.4 18.1 19.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.5 24.7 26.2 0.0 48.9 50.6 23.3 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------