***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 20.4 16.2 18.0 -5.5 0.0 2.6 23.0 23.6 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 99 1 0 100 20.6 16.0 17.8 -5.6 0.0 2.4 23.1 24.2 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 20.7 16.1 17.6 -6.0 0.0 1.3 23.1 24.0 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 13.3 10.4 16.0 -5.2 0.0 3.0 15.4 16.7 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 21.2 17.3 16.3 -5.8 0.0 2.0 22.7 24.0 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 18.9 17.3 14.9 -4.8 0.8 5.4 21.3 22.5 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 20.3 15.7 18.0 -5.3 0.0 3.4 22.4 24.1 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 98 2 0 100 8.6 5.4 14.3 -5.9 0.0 1.7 10.5 12.1 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 20.5 16.3 16.8 -6.1 0.0 1.4 21.9 23.7 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 20.5 16.8 15.1 -6.1 0.0 1.3 22.1 23.1 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 20.4 17.5 16.0 -5.7 0.0 2.3 22.3 23.5 24.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 19.7 17.0 15.3 -5.6 0.0 2.2 21.6 23.0 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 20.5 18.3 15.6 -5.3 0.0 3.0 22.6 23.6 24.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 21.2 16.2 15.7 -6.6 0.0 0.6 21.8 24.1 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 20.1 18.8 18.1 -4.7 0.9 4.3 21.8 24.5 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 20.7 18.5 16.0 -5.3 0.0 3.0 22.9 24.2 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 19.6 15.4 17.5 -5.4 0.0 3.0 21.8 23.3 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 20.1 16.8 13.9 -6.5 0.0 0.6 21.6 23.2 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 20.1 15.6 17.6 -5.8 0.0 1.7 22.7 23.7 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 14.7 11.2 11.9 -6.4 0.0 1.0 16.5 18.3 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 20.3 16.4 17.4 -6.1 0.0 1.3 22.3 23.7 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 20.1 15.8 17.1 -5.8 0.0 2.0 22.4 24.2 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 20.3 16.0 17.2 -6.1 0.0 1.1 22.6 24.4 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 21.1 15.6 15.7 -6.5 0.0 0.5 21.9 23.6 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 20.4 16.6 16.8 -5.5 0.0 2.6 22.4 23.6 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 20.1 17.7 15.0 -5.1 1.0 3.8 21.5 22.6 23.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 20.6 16.7 17.5 -5.4 0.0 3.0 22.5 23.6 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 19.8 18.3 16.9 -5.0 0.0 3.6 22.5 24.5 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 15.0 10.9 13.0 -6.5 0.0 0.7 16.4 18.7 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 20.3 15.8 17.9 -5.6 0.0 2.3 22.9 23.9 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------