***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.06.2014.-08.06.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.3 15.6 0.0 48.8 50.1 12.7 13.4 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.2 15.6 0.0 49.0 51.3 12.6 13.3 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.5 15.3 -0.1 46.8 49.1 14.0 14.6 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.4 13.3 -0.4 41.8 44.0 9.1 10.0 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.0 13.2 -0.3 43.8 46.5 11.1 12.1 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.8 11.4 -0.3 46.9 47.3 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.3 15.7 0.1 50.3 51.9 12.9 13.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.3 11.3 -0.2 47.9 49.0 4.8 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 13.1 12.5 13.5 -0.2 44.8 48.3 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.7 11.9 -0.2 47.9 49.0 12.5 12.7 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.4 12.7 -0.2 45.0 47.1 11.9 12.5 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.4 12.2 -0.3 44.0 45.8 10.3 10.6 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.2 11.7 -0.5 42.2 42.7 11.8 12.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.8 13.2 13.5 -0.2 43.2 47.3 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.3 13.7 -0.5 41.3 41.8 13.0 13.5 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.6 12.4 -0.4 43.5 44.3 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.5 15.5 0.1 50.9 53.2 13.1 13.4 14.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.2 11.8 11.2 -0.2 48.9 47.9 10.7 11.9 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.3 15.5 0.0 47.6 50.5 12.7 13.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.5 9.5 -0.2 50.7 48.3 6.3 7.5 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.7 14.6 -0.2 43.3 48.5 12.3 12.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.0 15.3 0.0 49.5 51.7 12.5 13.0 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.2 12.5 15.1 -0.1 45.4 49.0 12.1 12.8 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.6 13.3 -0.2 45.8 48.0 12.3 12.8 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.0 13.9 -0.2 45.1 47.3 12.2 13.4 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.4 11.8 -0.6 39.8 42.1 11.2 11.8 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.0 14.8 0.0 47.9 49.5 12.2 13.0 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 11.2 11.6 13.5 -0.5 41.8 42.4 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.9 10.6 -0.2 48.9 48.3 9.4 10.0 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.6 15.7 0.0 49.0 50.7 13.0 13.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------