***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.4 12.8 -0.8 39.0 40.8 11.2 11.6 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.2 12.7 -0.8 41.4 41.1 10.7 12.0 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 12.5 12.6 12.5 -0.9 39.1 39.5 12.4 13.8 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.1 7.3 10.4 -1.0 32.6 35.8 7.3 8.9 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.8 10.2 10.4 -0.9 35.2 37.5 10.1 10.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.0 8.8 -0.7 39.3 41.7 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.5 12.8 -0.8 42.3 42.0 10.8 12.0 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.8 8.5 -0.8 36.4 39.5 3.5 4.1 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.7 11.0 10.8 -0.8 38.5 39.3 10.8 11.9 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.0 9.3 -0.8 37.8 39.5 10.8 11.8 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.0 9.9 -0.9 36.5 37.6 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.5 8.6 9.3 -0.9 34.7 37.2 8.6 9.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.1 8.8 -1.0 33.9 35.5 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.5 10.7 -0.9 37.3 39.0 11.4 11.8 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 11.4 11.7 11.0 -1.0 30.7 37.0 11.9 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.0 9.6 -0.9 35.3 37.3 10.8 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 13.1 11.7 12.5 -0.8 41.0 41.7 11.2 12.7 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.2 9.8 8.6 -0.7 38.2 40.1 9.6 10.1 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.5 12.5 -0.9 39.4 40.0 11.2 12.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.3 5.7 6.8 -0.7 36.4 41.0 5.5 6.0 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.2 11.9 -0.8 40.3 39.4 10.8 11.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 10.4 10.7 12.2 -0.9 39.7 39.9 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.1 12.1 -1.0 37.9 38.1 11.0 11.6 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.2 10.5 -0.9 37.8 39.1 11.1 11.4 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 10.9 11.1 11.1 -0.9 34.3 37.5 11.0 11.8 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 9.5 9.3 8.9 -1.2 26.2 31.6 9.7 10.5 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 11.0 11.2 12.0 -0.8 36.9 39.9 11.0 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 9.7 9.6 10.7 -1.0 32.7 36.8 9.6 10.3 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.2 7.6 8.0 -0.6 38.6 42.0 7.4 8.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.5 12.8 -0.8 41.4 40.9 11.1 12.2 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------