***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.05.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 9.8 9.8 10.8 -2.1 18.8 21.3 10.5 10.9 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 9.9 9.1 10.5 -2.3 13.3 18.0 10.7 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 11.6 11.3 10.4 -2.2 14.8 18.5 12.0 12.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 6.3 6.2 8.4 -2.0 20.1 20.9 6.6 8.3 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 8.5 8.3 8.7 -2.1 15.2 17.9 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 7.7 7.3 6.6 -1.9 18.4 21.3 7.9 9.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 9.8 9.5 10.5 -2.3 14.2 18.8 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 2.3 2.1 6.3 -2.2 14.6 17.8 2.6 3.7 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 9.2 9.2 9.2 -1.9 19.2 20.6 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 9.4 9.1 7.4 -1.9 18.1 20.5 9.6 11.0 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 9.2 9.1 8.1 -2.1 15.6 18.9 9.7 10.3 10.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 7.4 7.3 7.1 -2.1 16.7 19.3 7.9 8.4 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 8.7 8.8 7.2 -1.9 20.2 20.9 9.1 9.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 9.9 9.5 8.9 -2.1 15.7 18.9 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 10.4 10.3 10.0 -1.6 26.6 26.7 10.5 10.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 9.6 9.4 7.9 -1.9 17.0 19.9 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 9.8 9.4 10.2 -2.2 14.4 18.8 10.7 11.5 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 7.8 7.5 6.5 -1.9 18.9 20.6 8.1 9.0 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 10.0 9.5 10.4 -2.2 13.2 18.1 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 4.0 3.6 4.3 -2.0 15.3 19.6 4.3 5.0 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 9.2 8.9 10.2 -2.1 16.2 19.1 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 9.5 9.1 10.2 -2.2 12.2 18.0 10.0 10.5 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 9.7 9.4 10.2 -2.2 14.2 18.5 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 9.5 9.3 8.6 -2.1 15.8 18.7 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 9.6 9.5 9.7 -2.1 18.7 20.7 10.2 10.8 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 8.1 7.8 6.7 -2.1 14.4 18.4 9.1 9.8 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 10.0 10.0 10.3 -1.9 21.0 23.1 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 8.5 8.6 9.0 -1.9 21.8 22.5 8.7 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 6.7 6.3 5.8 -2.0 16.0 19.0 7.0 8.1 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 9.9 9.4 10.6 -2.3 14.9 18.1 10.5 11.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------