***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 40.4 50.4 52.7 79.3 37.9 37.9 40.8 57.5 72.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 38.3 55.9 52.3 85.1 41.6 40.5 48.5 57.3 67.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 40.0 58.4 52.9 77.8 38.8 37.7 50.6 61.2 83.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 54.2 63.3 60.6 82.0 40.1 39.8 56.8 70.2 83.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 47.8 57.0 55.6 79.2 40.0 38.1 50.0 61.7 74.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 42.5 50.0 66.9 81.4 36.4 37.3 46.1 57.8 68.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 33.7 49.4 52.8 86.0 40.5 41.6 39.9 53.8 59.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 81.5 79.9 67.3 81.6 36.0 37.9 77.5 96.4 114.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 46.7 56.3 56.8 77.3 38.1 36.5 51.2 59.7 71.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 47.3 58.2 68.9 80.5 37.9 38.2 53.4 64.8 83.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 39.2 43.7 55.3 79.6 37.5 38.5 39.9 50.4 58.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 44.4 53.7 57.8 83.5 39.1 39.7 47.1 59.9 67.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 40.9 43.9 62.0 83.0 41.1 39.4 40.6 54.5 66.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 57.6 69.9 71.3 79.4 38.8 38.3 63.5 76.0 92.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 38.3 45.1 50.9 76.1 36.5 37.6 43.2 50.6 58.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 44.9 51.7 59.6 83.8 41.8 40.3 39.4 60.2 72.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 43.3 47.0 53.5 87.4 41.3 41.8 44.5 57.0 66.1 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 56.7 65.2 79.2 85.5 41.2 40.9 62.6 77.9 90.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 38.4 57.2 53.5 84.3 42.9 40.5 50.5 61.8 81.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 51.6 59.8 78.8 86.2 39.7 40.0 55.9 67.9 87.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 40.4 46.1 52.8 76.5 37.0 36.9 43.5 55.3 66.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 40.9 50.7 57.7 88.9 41.4 43.3 46.5 55.4 73.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 38.9 47.3 55.3 82.5 43.9 40.9 42.8 48.7 68.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 59.2 71.2 67.7 80.8 40.6 39.4 60.9 79.2 86.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 42.5 48.7 56.4 76.7 35.4 36.5 48.1 56.6 74.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 36.6 43.9 55.4 80.9 38.0 38.2 43.5 58.5 67.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 44.3 42.4 55.7 78.5 36.6 37.5 40.1 61.5 86.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 42.8 49.3 59.8 83.0 42.1 40.4 43.6 51.7 62.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 70.4 76.1 81.5 86.8 41.2 41.7 75.7 83.9 108.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 35.4 41.9 51.7 82.5 39.7 39.4 39.8 44.4 78.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------