***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 10.6 21.4 14.2 90.1 56.1 45.0 8.3 16.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 19.1 17.7 12.9 88.6 56.6 45.5 10.9 16.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 11.1 22.8 14.0 86.7 54.2 44.7 11.0 18.0 32.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 9.5 22.4 15.9 98.4 61.5 47.7 7.4 17.9 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.3 16.7 13.8 85.7 55.2 44.9 8.8 15.1 22.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.5 14.5 19.0 98.0 56.8 48.9 9.5 14.0 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.6 15.0 13.3 91.5 57.7 47.0 8.8 12.5 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 16.7 31.1 18.7 93.9 55.6 46.3 22.1 27.3 33.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 12.7 22.0 14.6 84.3 53.0 45.0 10.1 20.7 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.1 13.9 19.1 91.3 54.3 46.8 9.6 12.6 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 9.4 15.9 14.0 88.7 55.6 45.9 10.5 14.6 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.9 13.8 15.3 95.2 57.5 46.1 7.8 10.0 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 5.7 10.8 16.6 92.9 54.7 45.6 6.5 9.3 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 17.1 28.1 19.7 89.3 56.2 44.4 17.9 24.6 36.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.3 12.9 14.3 100.5 64.3 49.2 3.5 9.4 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 5.9 12.1 15.7 96.0 59.8 47.3 6.3 10.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 20.0 19.5 13.1 86.6 57.0 46.4 9.3 14.0 30.1 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 15.4 25.6 22.7 97.6 57.7 47.7 15.6 20.7 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 10.4 21.3 13.5 88.9 56.9 45.2 5.6 19.8 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 8.6 21.6 22.4 98.2 56.5 45.6 9.9 15.8 29.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 8.8 17.5 13.5 83.5 54.8 44.7 9.8 15.6 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.2 21.0 14.2 83.5 57.4 45.2 11.2 19.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 10.6 25.6 14.9 92.5 59.3 45.8 14.1 22.3 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 16.0 25.2 19.1 92.3 56.5 45.9 15.7 23.0 34.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 11.1 20.2 14.9 89.1 57.5 46.2 13.4 17.9 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.3 11.0 13.5 85.2 53.6 44.1 4.6 10.5 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 9.7 20.8 14.8 89.1 57.7 45.8 8.7 19.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.9 18.1 16.0 100.6 63.0 49.4 5.8 15.2 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 16.1 31.8 23.6 100.0 58.7 47.6 17.6 24.5 32.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 20.8 18.4 13.4 90.1 56.4 45.4 10.9 17.9 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------