***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.6 12.3 16.6 113.7 66.8 53.8 2.7 8.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.9 20.1 16.0 113.6 65.6 56.3 3.2 7.0 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.9 15.9 17.4 115.9 68.8 54.5 4.2 6.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.5 23.7 19.6 111.9 67.1 54.3 6.2 12.7 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.1 18.2 111.9 65.9 52.6 5.8 8.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.8 17.1 21.2 104.8 62.3 50.3 6.0 12.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.8 8.5 15.8 111.3 64.9 56.3 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 15.9 37.4 20.5 114.0 65.6 53.3 13.4 25.2 37.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.3 17.9 19.0 111.7 66.8 50.9 3.9 12.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.5 19.8 21.9 115.0 67.2 52.6 7.0 11.9 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.6 15.7 17.4 117.8 67.8 54.4 7.3 10.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.4 18.1 17.6 112.6 64.8 52.8 10.6 15.0 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.5 19.6 19.8 111.8 63.7 51.6 4.2 13.3 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.9 21.6 22.9 112.7 66.0 54.3 9.5 14.2 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.3 16.1 16.3 99.5 65.4 51.2 4.6 8.9 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.3 19.1 18.6 113.1 66.0 52.6 6.3 14.4 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 9.5 9.7 15.6 108.7 64.9 56.7 2.2 8.3 9.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.2 18.7 24.5 113.9 68.2 52.9 7.9 14.3 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.9 17.0 118.6 67.2 57.4 2.3 6.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 18.0 23.4 114.6 66.3 55.4 8.9 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.2 12.9 17.8 113.6 67.6 51.9 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.6 10.6 17.4 117.9 66.2 58.4 5.6 8.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 8.2 11.5 18.1 123.1 67.9 58.4 3.6 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.3 17.1 21.9 113.6 68.8 52.7 10.3 11.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.2 14.0 18.7 109.1 64.1 52.4 3.8 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.3 18.5 16.8 109.6 62.0 51.3 7.1 11.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.7 17.9 109.2 64.3 52.9 1.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.9 19.1 19.6 112.1 67.6 54.2 3.7 12.8 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.3 26.2 24.2 111.6 66.4 53.2 12.3 18.7 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 8.2 9.7 15.9 112.7 65.4 55.4 2.4 7.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------