***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 18.3 19.8 14.5 92.2 58.7 47.7 12.3 16.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.3 14.2 98.3 60.4 49.3 9.0 12.0 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 8.7 13.8 14.8 91.7 60.7 48.7 10.3 12.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.5 24.1 19.0 111.9 68.1 53.0 8.8 13.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.1 22.8 18.8 110.3 67.3 54.0 11.0 15.3 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.4 19.4 22.6 114.5 64.5 53.4 5.7 12.9 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.6 13.8 13.8 95.6 57.9 47.9 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 25.1 34.8 22.6 130.2 71.4 59.7 15.5 21.5 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.8 17.5 100.5 62.4 52.6 7.1 11.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 19.1 25.9 22.0 121.2 68.1 58.0 10.6 14.6 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.4 18.1 19.6 115.0 66.2 54.7 5.2 9.1 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.5 18.7 20.2 127.9 69.1 56.6 7.6 10.7 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.1 15.7 21.5 121.6 67.9 54.6 4.9 10.4 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 20.3 23.3 20.1 99.5 62.3 52.6 14.9 18.5 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.3 14.7 16.0 101.6 62.1 49.3 4.5 7.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.2 16.0 20.6 119.9 68.0 54.3 5.6 8.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.6 10.2 14.1 97.0 57.3 47.2 6.3 8.9 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.3 21.8 24.9 128.2 70.3 59.4 8.2 14.2 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.1 19.8 14.5 97.1 60.9 49.2 8.8 10.6 20.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 22.8 23.8 27.0 137.0 71.5 62.1 10.4 17.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.0 18.2 15.7 94.0 59.6 49.7 9.3 12.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.2 13.4 15.1 98.3 59.4 46.9 7.3 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 14.5 15.1 14.9 92.4 59.4 47.7 8.3 13.1 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 19.0 24.4 19.8 103.9 63.7 53.0 10.7 17.0 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 8.3 13.6 16.8 92.1 55.2 47.4 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.1 17.6 21.2 123.9 69.5 52.7 6.2 10.5 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 9.5 17.4 15.7 91.5 55.4 47.2 9.2 15.0 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.6 18.4 19.1 117.4 68.8 53.8 8.6 13.7 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 26.2 36.6 26.2 129.0 71.3 60.9 16.2 22.3 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.4 14.1 96.3 60.0 48.4 9.6 12.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------