***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 1.8 2.4 7.4 36.4 28.1 26.3 2.9 4.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.8 4.1 9.1 50.0 39.4 34.1 2.5 5.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 1.4 1.2 6.7 32.5 26.8 24.1 2.7 6.3 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 2.4 1.7 6.1 26.2 21.9 20.1 4.0 10.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 1.1 0.3 4.9 23.3 15.1 16.2 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 1.2 0.3 4.1 18.3 10.0 11.1 6.0 9.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.1 9.8 54.3 41.5 36.0 2.3 4.1 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 91 9 0 100 6.3 3.4 5.6 20.6 9.6 11.1 10.1 18.8 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 1.2 0.1 5.7 26.4 15.7 17.2 2.9 8.6 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 1.9 0.1 5.9 22.1 11.1 12.3 6.9 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 1.5 0.2 4.3 19.8 12.4 13.6 3.7 5.0 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 88 12 0 100 2.0 0.8 4.8 22.2 12.7 13.9 4.8 8.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 0.9 0.2 4.1 19.0 14.0 13.3 3.2 5.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 4.0 2.0 8.6 31.8 19.1 20.1 3.3 15.0 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 1.4 1.5 4.4 21.0 26.3 21.5 2.7 7.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 2.0 1.2 4.7 22.4 15.5 15.4 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.7 4.8 10.7 62.3 46.9 39.6 2.3 5.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 93 7 0 100 2.6 0.2 7.0 25.2 10.6 12.3 10.2 13.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.8 2.8 8.4 44.8 34.8 30.7 2.3 12.3 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 3.7 2.1 5.9 21.2 7.1 9.7 5.7 8.0 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 1.7 0.2 5.9 28.7 19.1 20.0 2.4 7.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.4 7.1 11.1 62.6 46.9 39.6 2.9 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.2 2.2 7.4 36.9 29.1 26.1 3.0 6.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 3.5 2.4 6.9 27.8 16.3 17.2 6.0 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 2.0 1.7 6.0 27.8 21.7 20.5 4.1 8.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 91 9 0 100 0.9 0.2 3.9 19.3 13.6 12.0 3.0 6.8 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 2.6 1.6 7.4 35.6 27.2 25.4 2.5 8.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 0.9 0.9 5.0 22.5 21.2 18.9 3.7 5.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 4.9 2.1 7.4 26.5 11.2 13.1 10.9 20.0 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.2 3.9 8.2 43.4 35.3 31.2 3.1 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------