***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 24.5 25.0 24.2 0.7 67.4 60.0 23.3 24.2 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 24.8 24.8 23.7 0.1 54.1 52.7 23.7 24.4 25.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 24.6 25.4 24.3 0.6 65.1 59.0 23.4 24.3 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.4 18.2 21.5 0.7 67.6 60.5 16.1 17.2 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 24.9 25.5 22.4 0.7 67.7 60.4 23.8 24.6 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 24.1 24.7 20.9 1.7 81.6 72.5 22.3 23.1 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 24.3 24.1 23.6 0.2 56.0 53.3 23.2 23.9 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 13.3 13.9 20.9 1.2 73.1 65.5 11.7 12.4 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 24.3 24.8 22.9 0.7 68.0 60.3 23.2 24.0 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 24.1 24.9 21.6 1.0 70.9 63.6 23.1 23.7 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 24.5 25.0 22.7 0.9 70.8 62.6 23.4 24.2 24.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 24.2 24.2 22.2 1.2 72.8 65.6 22.3 23.3 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 25.4 25.3 22.1 1.2 72.4 65.9 23.5 24.5 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.5 24.8 22.3 0.7 64.4 59.1 23.4 24.1 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 25.0 26.0 23.3 0.7 67.9 59.9 23.7 24.7 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 25.9 26.2 22.3 1.1 72.7 64.5 24.1 24.8 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.8 23.2 0.0 51.2 50.8 22.8 23.7 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 23.6 24.3 20.8 1.1 69.0 64.3 22.8 23.2 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 24.3 24.3 23.8 0.2 55.4 53.7 23.2 24.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 19.7 20.3 18.6 1.2 72.2 67.1 17.9 18.6 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.9 23.7 0.7 66.7 59.3 23.2 23.9 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 24.6 24.9 23.2 0.2 55.1 53.4 23.6 24.3 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.0 23.8 0.3 58.3 55.2 23.4 24.4 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.0 24.6 22.6 0.9 67.6 62.2 23.0 23.6 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.9 22.5 0.5 64.5 58.2 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 24.7 25.1 21.9 1.6 77.0 69.4 23.0 23.9 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.4 25.0 23.3 0.6 65.6 59.2 22.9 24.0 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.8 22.3 0.8 69.9 61.5 23.6 24.9 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.8 19.4 19.9 1.1 68.8 64.3 17.8 18.4 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 24.5 24.6 23.9 0.3 58.0 55.2 23.1 24.2 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------