***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 22.9 24.9 26.0 1.1 64.2 57.6 23.6 24.4 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.4 26.1 25.6 0.7 61.5 55.1 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 22.9 26.1 26.2 1.0 63.9 57.0 24.0 24.5 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 16.0 18.5 23.7 1.0 67.8 56.9 16.4 17.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 23.7 26.6 24.1 1.0 65.7 56.4 24.1 25.1 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 22.6 25.3 21.8 1.3 70.6 59.7 22.5 23.7 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 23.0 25.4 25.6 0.7 60.7 55.7 23.1 24.2 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 12.0 14.5 22.5 1.1 69.5 57.5 11.8 12.9 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 22.9 25.7 24.3 1.0 65.6 56.8 23.6 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 22.8 26.2 23.1 1.1 68.8 57.3 23.6 24.1 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 23.7 26.4 24.0 1.0 67.3 56.6 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 22.8 25.8 23.9 1.1 69.5 57.6 23.0 24.0 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 24.1 26.9 22.9 1.1 67.9 57.7 23.9 25.0 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 22.9 25.9 23.9 1.0 65.2 56.5 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 24.3 27.6 24.9 1.2 69.4 57.9 24.5 25.4 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 24.6 27.7 23.6 1.1 68.2 57.4 24.2 25.8 27.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.9 25.3 0.5 59.6 54.4 23.3 24.3 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 22.2 25.8 22.5 1.2 68.5 57.9 23.2 23.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 22.9 25.8 25.8 0.7 62.3 55.1 23.5 23.9 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 18.2 20.9 19.9 1.2 68.0 58.2 18.3 19.3 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 23.0 25.6 25.2 1.0 64.7 56.6 23.8 24.4 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.8 25.2 0.7 61.2 55.0 23.7 24.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 23.3 26.3 25.8 0.8 63.1 55.5 23.8 24.6 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 22.4 26.3 24.1 1.2 66.7 57.5 23.7 24.1 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 23.1 26.0 24.1 1.0 66.9 56.7 23.6 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 26.1 26.4 23.4 1.3 70.4 58.9 23.2 24.2 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 22.8 25.8 25.1 1.1 65.7 57.7 23.5 24.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 24.4 27.4 24.1 1.1 68.8 57.4 24.3 25.6 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 17.9 20.8 21.5 1.1 67.8 57.5 18.3 18.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.4 25.4 25.8 0.8 61.9 56.0 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------