***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 23.2 25.2 24.2 -0.1 51.3 49.5 23.1 25.1 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 23.1 24.3 23.8 -0.6 45.6 46.1 23.5 24.6 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 23.3 25.0 24.4 -0.2 51.1 49.3 23.4 24.9 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 15.8 17.5 21.9 0.0 51.2 50.1 15.9 17.1 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 23.4 25.2 22.4 -0.2 50.8 49.1 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 21.8 24.0 20.2 0.2 57.5 52.4 21.9 23.1 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 22.8 24.4 23.8 -0.5 46.7 46.5 23.3 24.7 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 11.0 13.2 20.7 -0.1 53.0 50.0 10.9 12.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 22.8 25.0 22.6 -0.1 51.6 49.8 22.7 24.6 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 22.7 24.4 21.4 0.0 53.4 50.5 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 23.3 25.4 22.3 -0.1 53.1 49.6 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 22.3 24.3 22.1 -0.1 53.5 50.2 21.8 24.0 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 23.1 25.0 21.1 0.0 52.8 50.1 23.1 24.7 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 23.0 24.1 22.2 -0.2 49.6 49.6 22.8 24.2 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 23.8 25.6 23.1 0.1 51.5 51.3 24.0 25.4 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 23.7 26.1 21.8 0.0 53.5 50.5 23.9 25.8 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 22.3 23.7 23.5 -0.6 43.9 45.7 22.9 24.3 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 22.3 23.9 20.8 0.0 53.7 51.0 22.1 23.9 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 22.6 23.7 24.0 -0.5 46.8 46.7 22.9 23.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 17.3 19.6 18.1 -0.1 51.7 49.8 16.9 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 23.1 25.2 23.5 -0.1 52.1 49.6 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 22.9 24.4 23.5 -0.5 46.4 47.1 23.1 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 23.3 24.5 24.0 -0.4 48.5 48.0 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 22.6 24.3 22.4 0.0 52.5 51.1 22.5 23.9 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 23.7 25.2 22.4 -0.1 50.8 49.3 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 22.2 24.4 21.5 0.1 56.4 51.4 22.6 23.8 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 22.9 24.5 23.3 -0.1 50.4 49.2 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 23.7 25.1 22.3 0.1 51.6 51.1 24.0 25.0 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 17.1 19.0 19.7 -0.1 51.1 49.9 16.9 19.0 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 23.1 24.5 24.0 -0.4 47.9 47.1 23.5 24.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------