***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 24.2 23.5 22.9 0.1 52.3 50.2 21.5 23.4 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.4 22.6 -0.3 46.0 47.0 22.3 24.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 21.8 24.2 22.9 0.0 50.4 48.8 22.3 24.0 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 14.2 16.1 19.7 -0.3 48.1 46.8 13.9 16.2 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 21.7 23.2 20.9 -0.2 48.0 47.3 21.9 23.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 20.6 23.8 19.0 0.5 54.7 52.9 20.6 22.3 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 24.5 24.0 22.5 -0.3 47.7 47.4 22.2 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 10.5 12.8 19.1 0.1 50.8 50.1 10.7 12.7 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.1 23.1 21.5 -0.1 49.4 47.7 21.5 23.2 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 21.3 23.4 19.9 0.0 50.7 49.3 21.4 23.2 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 21.5 23.0 21.2 0.0 49.0 48.9 21.9 23.2 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 20.8 22.5 20.4 0.2 51.0 50.7 21.0 22.1 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 21.8 24.3 20.6 0.3 51.6 50.8 22.0 23.6 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 21.9 24.0 21.1 -0.1 49.5 47.6 21.8 24.2 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 22.3 23.7 21.9 -0.3 47.2 46.8 22.5 23.8 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 22.4 23.9 20.7 0.1 49.3 49.6 22.5 24.2 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.2 22.2 -0.3 45.8 46.8 22.3 23.7 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 20.8 23.1 19.2 0.1 51.1 49.2 21.2 23.0 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.6 23.8 22.7 -0.3 46.0 47.1 22.0 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 16.0 18.9 16.9 0.2 51.8 50.1 16.6 18.6 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 21.5 23.5 22.3 -0.2 48.9 47.4 21.7 23.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.2 22.3 -0.1 47.6 48.3 22.1 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.7 22.6 -0.3 46.6 47.0 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 21.1 23.6 21.2 0.0 51.1 48.9 21.6 23.3 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 21.8 23.6 21.2 -0.2 48.7 47.6 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 21.3 24.2 20.0 0.5 55.6 52.7 21.4 23.1 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 21.5 23.5 22.1 0.0 51.7 49.7 22.4 23.5 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 21.6 23.1 20.6 -0.3 47.5 47.1 21.7 23.2 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 16.0 19.0 18.3 0.0 49.9 48.8 16.1 19.0 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.4 22.8 -0.2 48.0 48.0 22.0 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------