***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 25.4 25.8 23.5 1.6 72.3 66.7 22.3 23.7 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.7 22.7 0.7 64.3 59.3 22.5 24.1 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 25.6 26.0 23.6 1.6 72.0 66.5 22.3 23.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 18.3 19.0 20.7 2.1 75.3 71.1 15.3 16.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 26.0 26.6 22.4 2.3 76.7 71.7 22.3 24.0 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 24.6 26.9 22.4 4.7 93.3 87.4 21.2 21.9 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 25.2 25.5 22.6 0.7 65.1 59.4 21.5 24.0 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 13.5 15.4 21.2 3.5 86.1 79.4 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 25.3 26.2 23.2 2.2 76.9 70.8 22.0 23.0 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 24.8 25.8 21.8 3.0 82.5 75.6 21.6 22.8 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 24.9 25.7 23.3 2.9 81.6 74.6 22.1 23.3 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 24.3 25.4 22.5 3.5 86.4 79.3 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 25.1 26.6 23.5 3.5 84.8 79.1 22.6 23.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 25.6 26.1 22.2 1.9 77.0 68.4 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 25.7 26.4 23.4 1.7 73.2 68.3 22.2 23.8 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 25.9 27.0 23.1 3.2 83.3 77.6 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 23.6 24.6 21.9 0.3 60.8 56.4 21.2 22.9 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 24.3 25.7 20.7 2.9 83.6 75.0 21.3 22.6 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 23.9 25.2 22.8 0.8 65.3 60.5 21.8 23.4 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 19.8 21.7 19.4 3.7 87.9 81.9 16.2 17.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 25.4 26.0 23.6 1.9 74.3 68.9 22.4 23.1 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 24.2 25.6 22.0 0.7 64.6 59.3 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 25.5 25.4 22.9 1.1 66.8 62.3 22.2 24.2 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 24.8 25.4 22.6 2.3 78.1 70.6 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 25.4 25.9 22.2 1.4 70.2 65.3 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 24.8 27.5 22.6 4.3 91.1 84.5 21.6 22.3 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 25.1 25.5 22.7 1.4 70.9 65.2 22.0 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 25.8 26.5 22.2 2.4 77.8 72.7 22.2 24.0 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 19.6 20.9 20.1 3.1 84.3 76.6 16.6 18.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 25.3 25.5 23.1 1.0 67.1 62.1 21.5 24.1 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------