***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.4 13.7 0.2 56.5 54.8 11.8 12.3 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.3 13.2 -0.1 48.7 48.2 11.7 12.3 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.4 13.8 0.2 59.4 55.1 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.2 11.1 0.2 58.3 54.8 8.2 9.0 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.2 11.6 0.3 59.7 57.2 10.2 10.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.1 10.2 9.7 0.8 73.9 68.9 9.2 9.4 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.2 13.3 -0.1 49.1 48.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 5.1 5.2 9.4 0.5 67.9 62.8 3.9 4.5 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.0 11.7 0.3 60.3 57.0 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 12.1 12.1 10.2 0.5 66.2 61.6 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.7 11.2 0.4 62.9 59.4 10.9 11.2 11.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 10.1 10.0 10.3 0.6 67.6 63.0 9.2 9.7 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.4 10.1 0.6 67.7 64.3 10.3 11.1 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.3 11.5 0.2 60.1 56.0 11.8 12.2 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.5 12.6 0.2 58.6 54.5 12.1 12.3 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 12.3 12.4 10.8 0.5 65.3 62.1 11.5 11.8 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 11.9 12.3 12.9 -0.2 44.1 45.8 12.1 12.3 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.6 9.5 0.6 69.3 64.3 9.8 9.9 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.2 13.3 -0.1 50.0 49.3 11.9 12.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 6.7 6.9 7.6 0.7 73.3 67.0 5.7 6.2 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.1 13.0 0.2 59.2 55.8 11.3 11.7 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.8 12.9 -0.1 46.7 48.0 11.3 11.8 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.1 13.2 0.0 52.2 51.2 11.2 12.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.1 11.4 0.4 64.5 59.2 11.2 11.8 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.5 12.4 0.1 55.0 53.3 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 10.9 11.0 9.8 0.8 71.9 67.4 10.2 10.6 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.5 13.1 0.2 56.3 54.4 11.9 12.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.0 11.7 0.3 61.5 57.3 10.1 10.7 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 9.3 9.3 8.8 0.6 69.1 64.0 8.0 8.8 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.6 13.6 0.0 53.1 50.8 12.1 12.5 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------