***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 12.0 13.5 15.2 0.2 56.9 53.1 12.2 13.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 11.9 13.3 14.9 0.0 51.9 50.8 12.0 13.2 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 13.6 15.1 15.3 0.2 55.5 53.6 13.8 14.7 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.6 10.2 12.7 0.2 56.9 53.8 8.6 9.6 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 10.5 12.3 12.7 0.2 57.3 54.0 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.3 11.0 0.6 64.1 59.2 9.9 11.0 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 12.2 13.7 14.9 0.1 53.3 51.1 12.4 13.2 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.8 10.6 0.3 59.5 55.3 4.5 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 11.9 13.0 12.9 0.2 57.3 54.3 11.7 12.9 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 11.7 13.1 11.3 0.3 59.3 55.4 12.1 12.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.9 12.2 0.2 58.1 54.3 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.7 11.4 0.3 58.1 55.1 9.7 10.6 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.3 10.9 0.3 59.1 55.6 11.1 12.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.4 12.8 0.2 56.1 53.8 12.5 13.1 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.8 14.0 0.3 56.8 53.7 13.0 13.5 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.1 11.7 0.3 58.7 55.3 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 12.4 13.6 14.6 -0.1 50.0 50.1 12.5 13.6 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.9 10.6 0.4 60.5 57.3 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 12.5 13.5 14.9 0.0 51.6 51.1 12.3 13.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.7 8.4 0.4 60.5 57.0 6.3 6.9 7.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 11.9 13.0 14.3 0.2 56.8 54.0 12.0 12.9 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 11.9 13.2 14.5 0.0 50.8 51.0 11.9 13.1 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 11.8 13.5 14.8 0.1 52.8 51.7 11.7 13.2 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.9 12.7 0.3 58.3 55.9 12.0 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.1 13.5 13.6 0.2 54.4 52.3 11.7 13.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.0 10.7 0.4 61.2 56.6 11.1 11.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 11.7 12.7 14.5 0.2 56.1 52.8 12.1 12.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 10.8 12.2 13.1 0.3 58.2 54.7 10.7 11.8 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.2 9.9 0.3 58.4 56.5 9.0 9.8 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 12.5 13.5 15.1 0.1 53.4 51.8 12.5 13.2 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------