***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2020.-31.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.5 14.1 -0.3 44.8 46.3 11.5 12.7 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 11.0 12.5 13.8 -0.4 44.2 45.0 11.7 12.7 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 13.2 14.5 14.2 -0.2 46.8 46.7 13.1 14.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.3 11.5 -0.2 46.6 46.6 7.6 9.5 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.6 11.5 -0.2 44.6 45.7 10.4 10.8 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.1 9.6 0.0 49.0 50.0 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 11.3 12.9 13.9 -0.4 44.3 45.6 11.8 13.0 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.7 9.2 -0.2 45.5 46.7 3.3 5.3 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.5 11.7 -0.2 44.5 46.3 11.1 11.5 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.7 10.1 -0.1 46.7 47.1 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.4 10.9 -0.2 46.2 46.4 10.9 11.5 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.8 10.1 -0.2 45.9 47.2 9.1 9.9 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.3 9.6 -0.1 46.4 48.7 10.2 11.5 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.5 11.7 -0.1 47.8 47.7 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 11.5 12.4 12.8 -0.2 47.1 46.4 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.0 10.5 -0.1 47.8 48.2 11.1 12.2 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.3 13.6 -0.4 44.1 45.3 11.9 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.6 9.4 0.0 52.9 50.0 9.6 10.5 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 11.2 12.3 13.8 -0.3 44.8 45.6 11.5 12.7 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.3 6.9 7.2 0.0 51.9 49.7 5.5 6.7 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 11.0 11.4 13.1 -0.2 43.4 46.0 11.0 11.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 10.8 11.8 13.4 -0.2 45.2 47.2 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 11.0 12.5 13.7 -0.2 47.1 46.4 11.2 12.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.7 12.1 11.5 0.0 51.6 49.2 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 10.9 11.9 12.4 -0.4 44.4 44.4 11.5 12.2 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.0 9.5 0.0 49.6 50.2 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 11.3 12.7 13.3 -0.3 46.9 46.2 11.4 12.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.8 11.9 -0.1 48.4 47.6 10.0 10.9 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.7 9.3 8.7 0.0 52.3 49.8 7.6 9.1 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 11.3 12.4 14.0 -0.3 44.5 45.6 11.6 13.0 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------