***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.1 12.9 0.1 52.1 50.2 11.2 12.0 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.1 12.1 12.5 -0.1 48.6 48.6 11.2 12.2 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.7 13.0 0.1 51.9 50.8 12.8 13.7 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.8 8.6 10.1 0.0 49.2 48.3 7.1 8.6 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.8 10.9 10.9 0.2 53.2 51.3 10.1 10.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.1 10.4 9.0 0.9 66.5 60.9 9.1 9.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.1 12.5 -0.1 49.6 48.6 11.1 12.1 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.1 5.4 8.9 0.8 64.3 59.9 3.4 4.2 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.8 11.9 11.2 0.3 57.5 54.0 11.0 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.7 12.2 9.7 0.6 62.5 58.1 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.7 10.7 0.5 59.7 55.9 11.2 11.4 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.1 9.8 0.7 63.7 58.9 9.0 9.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.6 9.7 0.7 63.4 59.0 10.2 11.2 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.5 10.9 0.4 57.2 54.4 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 11.5 12.4 11.8 0.0 49.5 49.6 11.8 12.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.5 10.2 0.5 58.4 55.3 11.0 11.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 11.3 12.6 12.1 -0.2 48.4 47.6 11.1 12.6 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.1 10.5 9.0 0.7 63.4 59.3 9.4 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 11.3 12.1 12.6 0.0 48.5 49.0 11.2 12.2 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 7.0 7.1 7.2 0.9 66.1 61.5 5.2 6.1 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.8 11.8 12.3 0.2 53.2 51.5 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 10.6 11.3 12.2 -0.1 49.2 48.5 10.6 11.4 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.9 12.5 0.1 50.1 50.1 11.2 11.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.6 10.9 0.5 59.4 55.7 11.0 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.1 11.7 0.0 50.3 49.2 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.2 9.2 0.8 65.9 59.9 9.5 10.9 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.4 12.3 0.0 50.8 49.6 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.8 10.7 0.1 51.5 49.9 9.9 10.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 9.7 9.6 8.4 0.8 64.4 60.6 7.7 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.4 12.8 0.0 50.0 49.5 11.1 12.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------