***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 11.9 11.3 12.8 0.8 62.4 60.7 10.0 11.0 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.3 11.8 -0.1 51.4 51.0 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.9 12.9 0.7 63.4 60.8 11.9 12.7 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.3 9.6 10.2 0.8 66.4 62.0 7.0 7.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 10.4 10.6 11.3 1.0 70.5 64.8 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 9.5 10.1 9.3 1.9 80.9 76.3 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.1 11.8 -0.1 50.6 51.6 10.0 11.1 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 5.1 5.6 8.7 1.3 76.2 70.8 2.9 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 11.7 12.1 11.1 0.8 65.6 62.2 9.8 10.5 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 11.2 11.2 9.6 1.2 72.9 67.8 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 11.0 11.3 10.8 1.1 70.1 66.5 9.5 9.9 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 9.6 10.0 10.0 1.5 76.8 71.3 7.7 8.4 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 10.9 11.0 10.2 1.5 74.8 72.6 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.7 10.5 0.6 64.2 60.3 9.9 11.1 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.6 11.9 0.8 63.9 62.1 10.5 10.7 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 11.9 11.9 10.7 1.4 74.3 70.5 10.2 11.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.0 11.2 -0.4 44.6 46.9 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 9.6 9.6 9.1 1.3 74.0 68.5 8.0 8.8 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.3 11.9 0.1 54.7 52.9 10.2 11.0 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 5.9 6.2 7.6 1.7 80.3 74.8 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 11.3 11.2 12.3 0.9 65.5 62.9 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 9.5 10.1 11.5 -0.2 48.7 49.8 9.9 10.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.4 12.0 0.2 59.0 55.2 10.0 10.8 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.2 10.8 0.8 66.0 62.2 9.6 10.5 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.4 12.0 0.8 64.6 61.0 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 10.9 11.5 9.7 1.9 80.6 75.4 8.8 9.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 12.3 11.6 12.5 0.8 63.5 61.0 10.7 11.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 10.1 10.0 11.0 1.0 68.3 65.1 8.6 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 8.9 9.0 8.2 1.2 73.0 68.4 7.2 7.6 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.5 12.3 0.2 56.1 54.8 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------