***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 42.7 69.2 55.6 99.1 60.0 49.2 40.8 57.5 72.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 39.9 60.8 54.9 96.6 59.1 50.1 48.5 57.3 67.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 43.5 76.9 54.7 93.0 62.6 48.1 50.6 61.2 83.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 76.7 77.0 69.1 106.2 62.8 52.9 56.8 70.2 83.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 50.1 72.7 66.4 102.2 62.8 51.1 50.0 61.7 74.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 44.8 66.8 88.7 103.5 59.8 53.8 46.1 57.8 68.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 58.0 56.8 55.9 97.7 59.5 51.1 39.9 53.8 59.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 84.1 97.4 69.1 92.3 52.1 46.3 77.5 96.4 114.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 48.6 70.4 66.5 102.0 64.4 51.2 51.2 59.7 71.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 50.0 79.7 73.5 94.0 57.8 46.8 53.4 64.8 83.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 40.0 56.2 57.7 96.3 56.2 48.6 39.9 50.4 58.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 46.5 60.8 54.9 94.3 53.5 48.4 47.1 59.9 67.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 41.8 65.6 70.7 104.7 63.6 54.5 40.6 54.5 66.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 60.6 84.0 69.2 94.1 55.3 47.6 63.5 76.0 92.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 55.6 55.5 64.0 105.7 61.3 52.6 43.2 50.6 58.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 46.0 71.5 64.7 103.4 63.4 53.1 39.4 60.2 72.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 44.5 59.0 52.7 96.5 55.6 50.0 44.5 57.0 66.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 60.2 82.6 82.6 93.3 58.7 46.6 62.6 77.9 90.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 41.1 70.8 53.8 94.5 59.5 48.8 50.5 61.8 81.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 54.3 69.8 87.0 94.5 51.9 47.1 55.9 67.9 87.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 42.2 65.7 57.2 99.2 62.7 49.0 43.5 55.3 66.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 60.7 59.3 52.5 96.8 56.8 49.1 46.5 55.4 73.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 39.6 61.1 54.5 92.0 57.8 47.0 42.8 48.7 68.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 61.7 83.8 69.8 92.5 59.4 47.4 60.9 79.2 86.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 62.3 72.4 70.9 103.4 61.9 51.7 48.1 56.6 74.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 42.5 66.6 60.1 102.9 62.5 54.4 43.5 58.5 67.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 70.5 78.0 67.5 101.7 61.2 51.3 40.1 61.5 86.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 56.4 61.4 65.6 104.2 62.4 52.4 43.6 51.7 62.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 72.1 100.6 84.2 95.7 58.6 48.1 75.7 83.9 108.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 36.8 71.2 55.4 95.8 60.7 49.8 39.8 44.4 78.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------