***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 10.7 26.4 12.5 99.2 61.9 49.0 8.3 16.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 19.3 20.2 13.2 97.9 59.5 48.8 10.9 16.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 11.9 24.5 11.8 88.1 57.5 47.6 11.0 18.0 32.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 23.5 30.4 15.4 114.1 68.6 54.6 7.4 17.9 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 9.3 22.3 14.0 105.5 62.0 52.5 8.8 15.1 22.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 8.2 17.9 21.8 114.1 65.2 54.2 9.5 14.0 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.9 13.4 100.3 60.4 50.9 8.8 12.5 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 30.1 31.6 15.3 100.4 56.6 50.0 22.1 27.3 33.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 12.2 23.0 13.3 96.6 56.9 48.6 10.1 20.7 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.3 14.0 15.9 95.7 54.5 48.2 9.6 12.6 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 9.6 17.3 11.9 97.7 59.7 50.5 10.5 14.6 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.9 16.0 11.6 103.6 61.7 51.8 7.8 10.0 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 5.7 19.7 15.7 116.7 68.8 53.1 6.5 9.3 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 17.1 27.4 14.9 89.1 55.8 46.7 17.9 24.6 36.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.5 14.5 14.3 116.9 67.5 53.2 3.5 9.4 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 6.2 13.2 13.3 106.0 63.9 52.4 6.3 10.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 19.5 22.2 13.0 98.4 58.7 48.0 9.3 14.0 30.1 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 15.9 26.7 18.6 97.8 58.9 49.9 15.6 20.7 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.2 21.7 12.5 92.5 58.2 46.8 5.6 19.8 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 10.0 24.0 20.1 105.4 61.6 51.7 9.9 15.8 29.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 9.2 18.2 11.7 98.4 57.4 49.4 9.8 15.6 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.2 22.4 13.0 102.0 61.1 47.7 11.2 19.2 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.8 11.5 82.9 54.6 44.3 14.1 22.3 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 15.5 25.7 15.1 89.3 57.2 47.7 15.7 23.0 34.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 10.3 26.2 16.6 109.2 64.8 51.6 13.4 17.9 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.1 17.4 13.1 112.3 65.6 54.9 4.6 10.5 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.2 22.1 16.1 105.7 64.7 50.8 8.7 19.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 17.1 19.1 14.4 111.1 68.0 53.8 5.8 15.2 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 17.2 32.0 19.0 102.5 60.7 51.5 17.6 24.5 32.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 20.7 19.2 13.1 96.5 59.0 49.8 10.9 17.9 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------