***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.6 12.9 15.9 121.7 70.9 56.2 2.7 8.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.8 20.1 15.0 111.6 68.7 55.0 3.2 7.0 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.0 16.1 15.9 117.1 69.7 55.1 4.2 6.3 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.7 28.2 19.1 130.9 73.7 54.6 6.2 12.7 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.1 14.5 19.3 123.9 73.0 51.7 5.8 8.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.2 17.0 24.6 109.1 61.8 53.9 6.0 12.5 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.4 8.5 14.8 106.6 67.0 53.8 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 29.2 36.5 20.0 106.6 61.9 50.7 13.4 25.2 37.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.0 17.9 19.6 120.9 67.9 51.5 3.9 12.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.8 21.2 107.5 63.3 50.1 7.0 11.9 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.6 16.0 16.6 115.4 68.4 51.0 7.3 10.6 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.7 18.4 15.9 112.1 65.6 51.1 10.6 15.0 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.3 20.1 19.6 115.2 67.2 52.3 4.2 13.3 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.6 21.9 19.6 103.8 66.5 52.2 9.5 14.2 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.1 16.3 16.4 128.3 68.8 56.7 4.6 8.9 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.0 19.8 18.2 117.1 69.5 52.4 6.3 14.4 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.1 14.4 113.5 68.0 53.7 2.2 8.3 9.8 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.4 17.3 23.9 102.7 62.4 49.3 7.9 14.3 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.6 11.4 14.9 114.3 69.3 54.8 2.3 6.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 17.7 25.3 105.0 61.2 50.5 8.9 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.2 14.2 17.2 128.7 72.4 54.0 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.8 14.0 115.2 67.9 54.7 5.6 8.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.7 12.3 15.4 112.6 69.6 53.9 3.6 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.4 15.7 20.2 106.2 65.4 51.4 10.3 11.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.3 15.0 19.9 128.5 72.5 55.9 3.8 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.8 18.8 15.6 120.0 65.4 53.6 7.1 11.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.1 11.5 18.2 116.6 69.3 55.3 1.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.9 19.8 17.9 125.2 69.7 54.5 3.7 12.8 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 11.0 22.4 23.8 102.0 60.0 49.0 12.3 18.7 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.7 15.1 110.5 68.1 54.8 2.4 7.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------