***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 18.3 23.0 17.3 129.0 69.5 59.1 12.3 16.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 7.0 14.9 17.4 120.8 68.1 53.1 9.0 12.0 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.9 17.3 16.8 121.7 69.2 57.3 10.3 12.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 16.8 26.5 22.6 133.7 73.5 63.1 8.8 13.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.5 27.4 21.4 133.9 76.5 63.1 11.0 15.3 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.6 20.1 29.2 130.7 72.4 60.5 5.7 12.9 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 6.3 16.6 17.9 123.2 68.5 53.9 7.4 11.5 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 25.0 35.6 22.0 130.9 73.8 59.4 15.5 21.5 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 18.8 21.2 20.7 139.4 76.0 64.2 7.1 11.0 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 19.3 32.4 23.0 129.0 73.6 59.6 10.6 14.6 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.3 21.5 18.6 132.4 73.8 60.0 5.2 9.1 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 17.8 21.8 18.0 138.8 75.1 61.4 7.6 10.7 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.8 20.0 22.9 136.0 73.2 61.5 4.9 10.4 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 21.5 25.6 21.8 127.1 71.8 56.4 14.9 18.5 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.2 18.2 21.5 129.0 73.0 58.3 4.5 7.7 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.8 24.6 21.4 139.1 75.5 61.3 5.6 8.3 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 5.4 12.7 16.9 121.2 69.9 53.1 6.3 8.9 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.2 21.5 25.9 124.5 68.5 57.5 8.2 14.2 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 7.3 20.9 17.2 119.4 69.2 53.6 8.8 10.6 20.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 18.8 20.3 27.8 123.6 65.6 56.5 10.4 17.3 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.9 21.8 17.8 135.6 74.1 62.1 9.3 12.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 7.7 14.7 16.8 124.8 72.6 53.7 7.3 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.9 19.3 17.7 121.0 71.6 55.4 8.3 13.1 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 19.1 25.1 21.5 122.7 71.2 57.9 10.7 17.0 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.8 20.8 22.3 128.5 69.4 60.0 8.0 12.6 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 16.9 20.7 20.1 145.3 77.3 63.9 6.2 10.5 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.3 19.6 21.2 127.9 68.4 59.0 9.2 15.0 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.7 19.6 21.7 130.3 73.5 60.2 8.6 13.7 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 26.0 35.6 26.9 129.8 69.9 58.6 16.2 22.3 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 9.3 18.0 17.5 121.6 68.9 54.0 9.6 12.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------