***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 2.1 4.0 9.9 58.3 46.9 32.2 2.9 4.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.9 9.2 59.7 46.6 37.3 2.5 5.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.1 4.7 10.1 56.4 45.8 35.5 2.7 6.3 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.3 9.3 11.9 59.6 40.7 38.1 4.0 10.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.3 6.2 11.7 58.1 39.3 35.7 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.9 6.2 13.2 60.6 37.3 36.1 6.0 9.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.6 4.0 9.7 63.3 49.0 37.8 2.3 4.1 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 9.7 8.7 11.7 49.0 31.7 29.1 10.1 18.8 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.2 5.2 12.9 63.3 44.5 38.4 2.9 8.6 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.6 7.7 13.5 56.2 37.6 33.6 6.9 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.5 4.0 10.7 55.6 36.4 34.2 3.7 5.0 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.6 3.3 9.3 47.4 30.4 28.6 4.8 8.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.9 3.8 12.5 62.3 40.6 38.3 3.2 5.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 6.4 5.3 12.9 62.1 40.1 34.8 3.3 15.0 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.7 5.2 11.8 62.7 42.7 40.4 2.7 7.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.1 6.7 11.9 62.2 40.8 38.7 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 2.1 3.1 8.5 57.3 42.8 34.9 2.3 5.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 5.3 10.2 14.3 56.0 33.6 32.3 10.2 13.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.6 7.1 9.2 57.7 44.8 36.3 2.3 12.3 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 4.8 5.0 13.8 52.3 28.7 29.1 5.7 8.0 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.8 4.8 10.5 54.9 40.9 34.5 2.4 7.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.6 4.3 8.6 54.5 39.1 31.9 2.9 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.6 10.0 58.2 42.2 35.4 3.0 6.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.1 7.1 13.0 59.4 38.7 34.9 6.0 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.2 6.0 12.0 59.2 41.3 35.6 4.1 8.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.5 3.8 11.3 57.0 36.6 32.7 3.0 6.8 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.9 7.3 12.0 63.5 46.4 35.9 2.5 8.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.2 11.5 61.1 40.7 38.7 3.7 5.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 9.2 11.7 14.5 57.1 35.0 33.1 10.9 20.0 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.7 6.0 9.7 59.8 50.0 36.0 3.1 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------