***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 23.1 24.2 24.1 0.0 52.9 51.0 23.3 24.2 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 23.2 25.0 24.4 0.4 60.6 55.7 23.7 24.4 25.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 23.3 24.5 24.2 0.1 53.6 51.4 23.4 24.3 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 16.0 17.1 22.2 -0.2 48.9 47.6 16.1 17.2 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 23.5 24.4 22.4 -0.2 47.3 46.6 23.8 24.6 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.4 22.7 20.2 -0.3 45.7 44.9 22.3 23.1 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 22.9 24.4 24.2 0.3 57.6 54.2 23.2 23.9 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.6 12.3 20.6 -0.3 46.0 44.9 11.7 12.4 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 22.9 24.0 22.9 -0.2 49.1 47.2 23.2 24.0 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 22.7 23.6 21.4 -0.2 47.7 46.3 23.1 23.7 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 23.2 24.2 21.9 -0.2 49.1 46.4 23.4 24.2 24.7 29 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 22.4 23.1 21.4 -0.4 46.0 44.4 22.3 23.3 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 23.5 23.8 21.0 -0.4 44.9 43.4 23.5 24.5 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 22.9 24.2 22.5 -0.1 53.2 49.1 23.4 24.1 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 23.8 24.7 22.9 -0.2 51.2 48.8 23.7 24.7 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 23.9 24.6 21.6 -0.3 46.1 45.0 24.1 24.8 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 22.5 24.5 24.2 0.4 61.6 56.4 22.8 23.7 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 22.3 23.1 20.7 -0.2 47.5 46.5 22.8 23.2 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.9 24.4 24.4 0.4 59.6 55.3 23.2 24.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 17.6 18.2 18.5 -0.4 44.6 44.4 17.9 18.6 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 23.1 23.9 23.6 -0.2 49.6 48.1 23.2 23.9 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 23.2 24.9 24.1 0.4 60.8 55.7 23.6 24.3 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 23.3 24.8 24.0 0.2 57.2 53.0 23.4 24.4 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 22.7 23.6 22.4 -0.1 50.1 48.5 23.0 23.6 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 23.1 24.2 22.5 -0.2 49.2 48.0 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 22.9 23.3 20.7 -0.4 43.9 43.3 23.0 23.9 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 23.0 24.2 23.3 0.0 52.0 49.8 22.9 24.0 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 23.8 24.9 22.5 -0.2 49.3 47.7 23.6 24.9 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 17.4 18.2 19.7 -0.3 47.1 46.0 17.8 18.4 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 23.1 24.6 24.5 0.3 57.8 54.5 23.1 24.2 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------