***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 26.1 25.0 26.7 1.2 67.8 62.2 23.6 24.4 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 26.8 28.0 27.0 1.6 72.4 64.2 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 26.9 26.7 26.9 1.3 69.9 62.8 24.0 24.5 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.9 18.5 25.0 0.9 67.0 59.2 16.4 17.2 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.9 26.8 25.1 1.0 66.7 60.1 24.1 25.1 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.2 25.1 22.8 0.8 65.0 58.0 22.5 23.7 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 26.4 27.1 26.9 1.5 69.3 63.5 23.1 24.2 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 13.4 14.1 23.5 1.0 66.1 60.3 11.8 12.9 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.7 25.5 1.1 65.4 60.5 23.6 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 24.9 25.9 24.2 1.1 66.1 60.8 23.6 24.1 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 25.7 26.5 24.6 1.0 67.4 60.3 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 24.5 25.4 24.4 1.0 66.0 59.5 23.0 24.0 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.5 26.9 23.8 0.8 63.6 57.8 23.9 25.0 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 26.5 26.4 25.2 1.3 68.5 62.7 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 26.1 26.3 25.2 0.7 62.1 57.8 24.5 25.4 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.2 27.6 24.3 0.9 65.2 58.7 24.2 25.8 27.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 25.0 26.9 26.7 1.5 70.6 63.9 23.3 24.3 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.3 25.4 23.6 1.2 65.9 61.5 23.2 23.7 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 26.4 27.7 27.1 1.6 73.0 64.4 23.5 23.9 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 19.7 20.0 21.4 1.1 63.4 60.5 18.3 19.3 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.7 26.2 1.1 65.8 60.7 23.8 24.4 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 26.9 28.1 26.7 1.6 72.4 64.7 23.7 24.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 26.8 27.2 26.8 1.5 70.9 63.9 23.8 24.6 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.7 26.3 25.2 1.3 67.3 62.3 23.7 24.1 26.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 26.7 25.9 25.1 0.9 65.8 60.2 23.6 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 24.8 25.9 23.7 0.7 60.4 57.3 23.2 24.2 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 26.7 25.9 25.8 1.1 66.6 61.5 23.5 24.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 26.2 27.1 25.1 0.8 65.0 58.3 24.3 25.6 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.3 20.3 22.6 1.2 65.0 61.5 18.3 18.7 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 26.8 27.4 27.1 1.5 71.9 64.0 23.7 24.5 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------