***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.2 24.7 0.0 54.1 50.5 23.1 25.1 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.8 25.1 0.4 61.5 54.4 23.5 24.6 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.6 24.9 0.0 54.0 50.5 23.4 24.9 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 15.9 16.9 22.9 -0.3 47.8 47.1 15.9 17.1 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 23.6 24.7 23.0 -0.3 47.8 47.5 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.1 20.8 -0.4 46.0 47.7 21.9 23.1 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.1 24.8 25.0 0.3 60.3 54.1 23.3 24.7 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.3 21.3 -0.3 48.1 47.4 10.9 12.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 23.0 24.1 23.3 -0.3 48.3 47.8 22.7 24.6 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 22.9 24.3 22.0 -0.3 48.8 47.7 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.0 22.4 -0.3 49.0 48.1 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.9 22.1 -0.4 47.8 47.4 21.8 24.0 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 23.2 24.4 21.6 -0.4 46.8 47.2 23.1 24.7 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 23.1 25.1 23.1 -0.1 53.3 49.5 22.8 24.2 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 24.1 25.3 23.3 -0.3 49.5 47.3 24.0 25.4 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 23.9 25.5 22.1 -0.4 47.7 47.5 23.9 25.8 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.7 24.7 24.9 0.4 60.4 55.2 22.9 24.3 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 22.3 23.9 21.4 -0.3 48.7 47.9 22.1 23.9 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.5 25.2 25.1 0.3 61.4 53.7 22.9 23.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 17.4 18.7 19.2 -0.3 46.4 47.3 16.9 19.2 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 23.3 24.6 24.1 -0.2 50.1 48.2 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.1 24.8 0.4 59.9 54.0 23.1 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.2 26.0 24.7 0.2 58.7 52.0 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 22.7 24.0 23.1 -0.2 50.4 48.9 22.5 23.9 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 23.8 25.0 23.1 -0.2 50.1 48.1 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.4 21.5 -0.4 47.5 47.0 22.6 23.8 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.1 23.9 0.0 53.4 50.2 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 23.9 24.9 23.1 -0.4 47.5 47.1 24.0 25.0 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 17.3 18.9 20.4 -0.3 48.2 48.1 16.9 19.0 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.4 25.1 0.3 60.7 53.4 23.5 24.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------